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For buy, the STOP point(I draw) is not Support or some Major Higer Low,it just distance equal the Reward( New Higher), its not make sense to put there.
I guess Al is just making a point that in if you enter in that particular bar with a reward=risk, it would make more sense if you enter selling in this context because of probability. The whole point of this section is to show how probability is important.
That is correct. On the 3rd bar, the AIS direction is confirmed. What that means is that there is a 60% chance of the trend continuing and thus when choosing between an equal move upwards or downwards, in this case the bears would win more often. One might think that an equal distance up or down has 50% probability, but AI[L/S] changes these odds.