confusion with climaxes

Climaxes, as any thing in PA, give you a probability for a reversal, so they can fail as well or not fail but travel further than what you think. What video and slide are you referring to?

thanks for your reply, it's a generic question after watching the entire section on climax (All 5 videos).

There are a lot of examples where AI says, this is a climax, this is climax ..but the prices keep on moving in the same direction hence the confusion.

Yes, if you want, bring a chart and we can comment it... 

I think Al's concept of a climax is a rapid acceleration in trading in which range expands and prices move in just one direction. The acceleration is not (usually) sustainable, so when the bar closes, the odds increase that a trading range or reversal will develop, so look for evidence of behaviors that point in that direction and prepare to respond (lighten up, add on, move your stop, exit or enter). If evidence develops, act accordingly. If it doesn't hang tight.

That concept is more useful than the notion of a climax as just an ending, as that becomes apparent only in hindsight.

Correct me if I'm wrong. I'm a newbie here, too.

Posted by: @ludopuig

Yes, if you want, bring a chart and we can comment it... 

e.g this slide from the video 29e where AI says series of end climaxes. https://imgur.com/Xllls4L

So the question I had was how to decide which one is a climax that will end the downtrend?

But from what Mark mentioned, "it becomes apparent only in hindsight".

Posted by: @no-one

So the question I had was how to decide which one is a climax that will end the downtrend?

But from what Mark mentioned, "it becomes apparent only in hindsight".

In hindsight everything is 100%, the goal of PA reading is to allow you to act with a probability no bigger than 70% doing a bar-by-bar analysis.

Maybe the chart below helps to understand why even the bears where getting consecutive climaxes, the bulls didn't do enough to turn the MKT up until bar 46.

Posted by: @ludopuig

Posted by: @no-one

So the question I had was how to decide which one is a climax that will end the downtrend?

But from what Mark mentioned, "it becomes apparent only in hindsight".

In hindsight everything is 100%, the goal of PA reading is to allow you to act with a probability no bigger than 70% doing a bar-by-bar analysis.

Maybe the chart below helps to understand why even the bears where getting consecutive climaxes, the bulls didn't do enough to turn the MKT up until bar 46.

 

 

thanks a lot mate, appreciate the efforts you have taken to explain this.

It would need lot of practise to read the chart in this manner in the live market.

Yep I am confused exactly the same way.

I understand that early on you can get a BO which could be a buy climax, if it reverses like in 80% if cases.

But I was especially more interested with the definition being applied to a series of bars, or single wide bar at the later stages of a trend. Is this what we should consider a Climax in reality?

With a series of Bull bars in a Bull trend being considered a climax I am confused. So which one is it?

I do understand that a Bull or Bear Climax also sometimes being referred to as a Exhaustion GAP at the end of a trend. (And not a measuring GAP for further move upwards).

Appreciate a little help here.

JJ

Posted by: @johnspl-realty-com

But I was especially more interested with the definition being applied to a series of bars, or single wide bar at the later stages of a trend. Is this what we should consider a Climax in reality?

Yes, a big trend bar or series of medium bars can be either a BO and a climax, tho at the later stages of a trend is likely to be a climax and at the beginning of the trend more likely to be a BO.

Yet, 19 in the picture above is in the middle so, what is it, a BO or a climax? next bars tell you. The next bull bar closing on high set up a Wedge 5 12 19 with 19 being a climax but it didn't trigger and bears got a DT for trend resumption. The trend was well over 20 bars so next series of trend bars or big trend bar becoming more likely to be a climax instead of a BO. Then you had another climax at 29, which was a Wedge 22 27 30 and the second leg down from 19 surprise bar down. This time worked but the two legs were not up but sideways and gave another bear setup at 40 L2. The last climax ending at 44 created a bigger and good looking W 20 30 45 so you can take either this first entry or the second entry at 46, and this time it gave a swing up heading to 24H top of the channel, at least.

Posted by: @johnspl-realty-com

I do understand that a Bull or Bear Climax also sometimes being referred to as a Exhaustion GAP at the end of a trend. (And not a measuring GAP for further move upwards).

Correct.