Slide 9: Alternative MM target based on Leg 1 = Leg 2

Hi Noah,

You're right, an extended TR reduces the probabilities in which direction the BO will ultimately happen. However, everything is relative and it would help to see the size/strength of the preceding trend. If there was a very strong bull trend before the TR, for example, we would still say that the bias is slightly bullish and expect a resumption of the trend to the upside. If you have a screenshot of a chart for this it would help also.

For example, if you have just the bars of this bull spike to consider, the TR that followed is much more substantial compared to it and it's probably much closer to 50/50 what will happen next

But if the prior trend was this big, then even if the TR is a final flag, I think we can expect at least an attempt at a resumption to the upside at some point:

A more advanced way would be to check HTF. If there's a pattern on a higher timeframe that has a high chance of completing MM leg1=leg2 on that chart that adds strength to the argument that it will happen on the 5M chart as well. In one of the course videos on using HTF, Al advises to use higher timeframes like that to avoid exiting a good trade early by allowing the HTF pattern to play out. It helps us to hold swings for longer on 5M.

Hope this helps,
CH
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I will add screenshots going forwards, apologies.

Useful comment on the relative strengths of trend vs TR, hadn't thought of it being a range of possibilities yet, still had a binary view. You still think it holds in this situation, seems a very lengthy TR compared to the prior Trend?

I'm also thinking:

 1. Ultimately with MMs we start with the smallest one and if price doesn't respect it, draw the next up, until you get to Leg 1 = Leg 2 based on Bull BO preceding the TR which in this case gave the largest Leg 2.

2. Watch the HTF video!

Thank you