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I'm confused about the chance of a successful with-trend breakout of a channel. Is it 25% or is it 25% of 25%, i.e. 6,25%?
In slide 16E (and in the slides before), Al clearly states that there is a 25% chance of a successful breakout of a channel in the direction of the trend while showing the following example:
Yet, the 75% rule states that 75% of all channel breakouts fail and reverse within five bars (on the highest timeframe that has the channel). Al repeatedly stresses that this holds true for breakouts in both directions of the channel. Given that we are on the highest timeframe that has the channel, shouldn't the chance of a successful with-trend breakout be lower than 25% and more like 6,25%?