Always IN Confusion

There's 2 Always Ins:    

• Always in Long/Short
• Always in Trend/TR (but there's trends within a TR ?)

As far as I can tell (correct if wrong)   AI TR trumps AI Long/Short because TR = BLSHS

On the MNQ chart you cannot buy bar 7-23 because it's Always in TR and that's buying at top of TR.

After 23 it's clearly a successful TR BO + FT = Always in Long.  To Siddhant's point:  This is still a bull trend (Always in Long) until bar 8 low gets broken. Trends are defined by Major HL/LH

Hi W,

I think you might make this more complex than necessary. There's only AlL and AIS.

Always-in is defined as: if I forced you to be in a position right now at this moment, would you rather be long or short? That's it, no more complex than that. If the answer is neither then there is no clear always-in.

Regards, Tim

Respondido por: Tim

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I think you might make this more complex than necessary. There's only AlL and AIS.

There is not just Long/Short.     There is also Trend/TR.

Reversals book, chapter 15: Always In  "Always in is a swing concept that applies to trends, and is dangerous within trading ranges, where it is better to scalp and buy low and sell high."

Hi Siddhant,

A good rule can be to have your initial SL 2 HL or 2 LH away to make sure you are at the right side of the market so into the right AI direction. After that breaks the AI direction can change. It's from Tim Stout, so if you have access to the Brookstradingroom videos take a look at Tims sessions, where he explains that from time to time or take a look at the free video of his session which is available and might include that.

So for 13A this would mean it's AIL above the green line when you define the last small bear as a valid LH. If not then you are AIS and your one LH is at the green line and the other on the top of the 1st bear bar.

For 13B it could be like marked in the picture. The inside bar after the spike is the start of a new leg, as it's seen as a pause or a pullback.

The AI direction depends on the TF you are looking at and the distance you are willing to cover to your target & stop on that chart.

Here's the subtle difference between 13A & 13B:

In 13A, if you are only looking at the last bull leg (4 bars), which is very strong, market is still in a TR because there is an obvious LH to the left and market is trying to BO from that. Therefore, you need at least 1 more bar to confirm the BO, and only after that the market is AIL.

Yet at the same time, you can choose to consider all bars on that chart and say "as strong as the bull leg is, market is still below the most recent major LH, so market is still AIS even tough it might still go up some more" i.e. the market is temporarily AIL and you expect it to be AIS again. Notice that you are still looking at the same chart and the same TF, but you consider many more bars to the left to enter a trade in this case, whereas you took less bars into consideration above. In the above example, you could have dropped down to 1M chart and traded there and it would almost be the same thing.

In 13B, market is probably in a TR that is yet to develop, so you don't really know where the "bottom" is, therefore you are either in a bear leg in a TR with some distance to the bottom or a bear trend (you don't know yet), so you can enter short and hold until you see a credible reversal. That would be the 5th bull bar which is big and also the 2nd entry for a long. The bottom of the TR can be here and it is reasonable to exit, and even to go long. Here you just look at the last 7 bars or so.

You can also hold short, looking at the last 20 or so bars, arguing that those purple highlighted bear bars are strong, therefore you expect a 2nd leg and you'd be right in this example. In addition to that, the market looks like a bear BO and a wedge PB to MA with an okay bear signal bar, so you can short there too.

Long story short, if you consider more bars to the left before opening a trade, then essentially you are looking at a higher TF chart. Conversely, if you consider only a handful bars, then it is similar to looking at a lower TF. Same goes for your stop: a stop that is farther away is the same thing as a stop placed at a higher TF.

In other words, if I'm looking for a small scalp, then I can probably look at the last few bars and that would be enough - 2 strong bull or bear bars turn the market in their direction. However, if I'm looking for a bigger scalp or a swing, I need to look at more bars and those bars might have opposite AI direction like in 13B.

Hope this helps.