Market Overview: NASDAQ 100 Emini Futures
The NASDAQ Emini futures week is a bull trend inside bar reversing last week’s bear bar. The week had a bounce from support area of 8-5 close.
On the daily chart, the market had two legs up with bull bars on every day of the week. Wednesday was a big outside up day, and the start of the 2nd leg.
The prior monthly report had said that September will most likely be within the range of the quarterly bar – i.e. the high of July and the low of August. Two weeks into the month, the market is doing that.
The market is essentially in a triangle – which is a breakout mode pattern. Next week is the Fed meeting where everyone is expecting the first rate cut which may drive the market towards one of the extremes of the quarter.
NASDAQ 100 Emini futures
The Weekly NASDAQ chart
- The week is a bull trend inside bar closing above the weekly EMA.
- It reverses the big bear bar of last week.
- The reports for the past 4 weeks have shown an area around the close of 8-5 as a temporary support area after the market had a strong entry bar the week of 8-12.
- This week the market had a bounce from the area of support. I call it a bounce as opposed to a reversal because of the reasons below.
- It is a H2 buy signal bar but has the following problems – it is a big bar. it is an inside bar. Most of the body is below the EMA. It is in the middle of the big range between the high of July and low of August, which means the stop is still below the August low – which is far away.
- The market is also back in the area where bulls who bought the close of the bad buy signal bar from 2 weeks ago were trapped by the big bear bar of last week. Its possible we see a small leg down for a day or two early next week.
- Bulls will need good entry and follow-through bars like they did back in mid-April.
- Traders are scalping by selling above strong bear bars and buying below strong bull bars. Traders that sold the high of 7-29 bear bar made money. Bulls that bought below 8-12 bull bar made money.
- The market is essentially making a triangle and is in breakout mode. It may be best not to trade in this area and let the market get to one of the extremes – July high or August low and see if a good reversal signal sets up. If one is trading in this area, they will need wide stops and scaling in.
The Daily NASDAQ chart
- This week was a bull bar every day of the week. Monday was a bull inside reversal bar after the big bear bar last Friday. Tuesday was a good entry bar.
- Wednesday was a big outside up bull bar. The day started as a bear trend and reversed at some point and ended the day as a bull bar closing slight above the daily and weekly EMAs.
- Given most of Wednesday was below the EMAs, Thursday needed to be a good follow-through bar, which it was (although smaller in size compared to Wednesday).
- Friday was a small bull bar with a prominent tail above.
- Last week’s report had said that there should be a 2nd leg down to the big bear bar of last Friday. It’s not clear if the tail below on Wednesday is that second leg.
- The daily and weekly EMAs are essentially overlapping with each other and flat. This is another sign the market is going sideways.
Market analysis reports archive
You can access all weekend reports on the Market Analysis page.
