Market Overview: FTSE 100 Futures
FTSE 100 futures moved lower last week with a Low 1 at the top of a trading range. 5 consecutive higher lows, so we expected there to be buyers below. Weak signal bar for the bears, so we might need to go for a second leg up. Bears want to trap bulls here high in a trading range and get back to the MA.
FTSE 100 Futures
The Weekly FTSE chart
- The FTSE 100 futures chart last week was a bear outside bar, closing above its midpoint with a tail above.
- It is a Low 1 short for the bears but a weak signal bar with the tail.
- It is also the first reversal down in a bull microchannel, so that is less likely to work.
- Bulls see a spike and maybe a channel starting now. They want a breakout above this trading range.
- The bears see a double top high in a trading range. They want a trigger sell below the low next week to make the bulls think about giving up.
- Some bears already see a couple of legs, maybe a wedge, with three pushes up.
- Other bulls see the complex legs and that we broke out of a triangle at the MAs and were in BOM. It is more likely we are starting a new pattern.
- If the bears can get follow-through, then bulls will likely buy the MA.
- We triggered the buy above last week and got a big tail below, so some bulls are disappointed with the BO. If we get back to the highs, they will likely exit.
- Limit order bulls have been waiting to buy below a bar, so now they have a chance to buy.
- Because of the TR price action, we will likely go sideways back to the MA to find more buyers. If the Low 1 gets follow-through, that will be surprising.
- Most traders should be long or flat. Some bulls will exit below this bear bar, although it was a weak close for the bears. Other bulls will wait to get out a scalp below it.
- Expect sideways to up next week as we are always in long.
The Daily FTSE chart
- The FTSE 100 futures chart on Friday was a bear bar closing above its midpoint with a big tail below.
- The bar touched the MA and reversed up back inside the prior bar.
- The bulls see a bull channel with several legs up. We have been going sideways for a week now as traders decide whether we move up to close the gap above.
- The bears see a double top or a wedge bear flag testing the top of a sell climax from October or September.
- Trading ranges often go past support and resistance.
- But has the character changed? The bulls now have sets of 3 consecutive bars and open gaps, and bears have failed to do much since November.
- The bulls could say it is a small pullback bull trend. Every bear bar was a buy setup.
- Most bull channels hit the top side and then come back and touch the bottom side. But that might be all we get because too many buyers were there.
- It is a bad sell below Friday with the big tail. And a weak buy signal for the bulls. So we might go sideways again on Monday.
- Some bulls might see a High 2, but it is not clear on this timeframe.
- some bulls exited once the second consecutive bear bar closed. Other bulls bought more to get back to the high close.
- Because the test was an inside bar, most bulls closed there.
- Expect sideways to up next week as the Low 1 makes bulls decide how much buying pressure there is.
- It is always in long, so most traders should be long or flat.
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