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Emini Bulls Defending March 8 Breakout Point

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Trading Update: Thursday March 28, 2024

End of day video review

**End of Day Emini Review starts at 4min 30secs – Will edit later**

S&P Emini pre-open market analysis

Emini daily chart

  • Yesterday, a strong upside breakout occurred late in the day, which created a strong bull bar on the daily chart.
  • The bears tried to close the March 8th breakout point gap and failed to get follow-through selling after Tuesday’s outside down breakout bar. However, so far the bulls have been able to defend the March 8th breakout point.
  • The bulls are hopeful that today will see strong follow-through buying. However, they are more likely to be disappointed, and today will be a weak bull trend bar or a trading range bar.

Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today

  • Traders should assume that today, the U.S. session will see a lot of trading range price action on the open.
  • Most traders should wait 6-12 bars before placing a trade unless they are able to trade with limit orders and make quick decisions.
  •  Because yesterday’s rally was so strong late in the session, traders should expect the downside to be limited on the open.
  • The best the bears can probably expect is a trading range with limited downside unless they can develop more selling pressure.
  • The bulls may try for trend resumption on the open. However, because yesterday’s late rally was climactic, the open may go sideways for several bars.
  • Traders should pay attention to yesterday’s high as it will likely be a magnet during today’s session.
  • The bulls want today to trigger the buy with a strong entry bar, and the bears want to prevent the bulls from get their follow-through.
  • The open of the day will likely be important as well. Bears are hopeful they can create a bear reversal bar. At a minimum, the bears will want today to close below the open, as a sign that they owned the bar.

Emini Intra-Day Update

  • The Emini has gone sideways, close to yesterday’s high for the first 24 bars.
  • The Bulls want a strong upside breakout above yesterday’s high, creating follow-through on the daily chart.
  • If the bulls continue to fail above yesterday’s high, they may give up, and the bears will be above to overwhelm the bulls.
  • It is a higher probability to wait and see the bear’s consecutive big bars below the moving average or 3-4 consecutive closes below the moving average before looking to sell.

Yesterday’s Emini setups

SP500 Emini 5 Min Chart DT Then Sell Climax and Wedge Bottom

Al created the SP500 Emini charts.

Here are reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. I show each buy entry bar with a green arrow and each sell entry bar with a red arrow. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a near 4-year library of more detailed explanations of swing trade setups (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups). Encyclopedia members get current daily charts added to Encyclopedia.

My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.

It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.

If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro Emini.

EURUSD Forex market trading strategies

EURUSD Forex daily chart

  • The EURUSD formed a Low 1 short two days ago and is getting follow-through selling below it.
  • Low 1 setups typically get a minor reversal followed by trend resumption. Today is a second leg down for the Bears following last week’s two bar breakout. This is the minimum the bears expected.
  • While it is good that the bears are getting their second leg down, today is spending a lot of time at the midpoint of its range. This is a sign of a weaker breakout and increases the odds of a failed breakout below the March 22nd low.
  • The bulls have the argument of a parabolic wedge and a failed breakout below the March 1st low.
  • If today or tomorrow reverses up, forming a bull bar closing near its high, that would increase the odds that bears will buy back shorts above it.
  • Overall, the selloff down from the March 8th low is likely a bear leg in a trading range. This increases the odds of buyers not far below today’s low and a reversal up.

Summary of today’s S&P Emini price action

SP500 Emini 5-Min Chart Higher High DT Then Small Trading Range Day

Al created the SP500 Emini charts.

See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.

Trading Room

Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed Emini price action real-time each day in the BrooksPriceAction.com trading room days. We offer a 2 day free trial.

Charts use Pacific Time

When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.

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