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Emini Breaking above 5,800

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Trading Update: Thursday September 26, 2024

End of day video review

Brad Wolff Emini EOD Review

S&P Emini market analysis

Emini daily chart

  • The Emini formed a weak bear bar yesterday on the daily chart in the middle of a five-day tight trading range and is currently breaking above the 5,800-round number during the early morning hours.
  • The tight trading range is a sign of hesitation by the bulls, increasing the odds of sideways trading soon.
  • Because the tight trading range is just below the 5,800-round number, there is an increased risk that the market will have to gap up to reach it, which is what happened today.
  • Since today is gapping up on the daily chart, traders should expect that the market will retest yesterday’s high and fall below the 5,800-round number. This means that 5,800 is a magnet for the bears.
  • It was reasonable for the bears to sell the 5,800 round number and scale in higher, betting that, at a minimum, the market would retest the 5,800 round number and allow the bears to exit at their original entry.

Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today

  • The formed a gap up above the 5,800-round number. There are likely sellers above the round number, making it a likely magnet for the bears to test.
  • The bears formed a strong bear bar on bar 1, and, as of bar 8, has a bear trend from the open.
  • Because of the gap up, there is an increased risk that the selloff below bar 1 will lead to a trading range and not a bear trend. This increases the risk of buyers below scaling in down to the moving average.
  • The bears are allowing too much buying pressure down to bar 6. This increases the risk that the bears will exit, and the market may have to form a double top.
  • The bears need a strong downside breakout to convince traders the market is Always In Short.
  • The market is forming a tight bear channel that is likely a bear leg in what will become a trading range. If the bears can create multiple open gaps, the risk of a small pullback bear trend is increased.
  • Without open gaps, the odds favor a bear leg In a trading range.
  • The primary issue for the bears is that the gap up is a bull breakout, and breakouts typically get 2nd legs. This means that the market may have to retest up to the upper 1/3rd of today’s.
  • The first hours formed a strong bear bar, closing on its low on the 60-minute chart. This increases the odds that there will be sellers on any pullback (5-minute chart), and the bears will get a second leg down.

Yesterday’s Emini setups

SP500 Emini 5-Min Chart Double Top Then Tight Bear Channel

Al created the SP500 Emini charts.

Here are reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. I show each buy entry bar with a green arrow and each sell entry bar with a red arrow. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a near 4-year library of more detailed explanations of swing trade setups (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups). Encyclopedia members get current daily charts added to Encyclopedia.

My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.

It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.

If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro Emini.

EURUSD Forex market trading strategies

EURUSD Forex daily chart

  • The EURUSD is forming a tight trading range at the high of the August high.
  • The bears are hopeful that the market is forming a double top with the August high. Next, they want a downside breakout and a break below the neckline of the September low. They are hopeful that they need a measured move down.
  • More likely, the EURUSD is going to continue to go sideways in the tight trading range.

Summary of today’s S&P Emini price action

SP500 Emini 5-Min Chart Bear Trend from Open Then Midday Reversal Up

Al created the SP500 Emini charts.

See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.

Trading Room

Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed Emini price action real-time each day in the BrooksPriceAction.com trading room days. We offer a 2 day free trial.

Charts use Pacific Time

When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.

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