Trading Update: Friday June 21, 2024
S&P Emini pre-open market analysis
Emini daily chart
- Yesterday, sold off late in the day after breaking out above last Wednesday’s high. The bears are beginning to halt the buying pressure which will increase the odds of sideways trading.
- The bears are developing more selling pressure, and the market will probably reach the 5,500 round number and the moving average.
- While the odds favor sideways to down, the bears have not done enough to make the market clearly always in short. This means that there might be more buyers below yesterday’s low than sellers.
- Although the bulls have done a good job with the buying pressure of the past several weeks, it is getting climactic. This will increase the odds of the market having to pull back and get closer to the moving average.
Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today
- Emini is down 8 points in the overnight Globex session.
- The Globex market sold off during the early morning hours and began to go sideways. The market rallied for two legs, and the bears are hopeful the rally will become a bear flag and lead to a second leg down.
- If the bears do get the second leg down, there are probably buyers not far below, and that will likely limit the downside.
- Yesterday is a bad sell signal, which increases the odds of buyers below. This means that traders should pay attention to yesterday’s low as it will likely be a magnet and have buyers below.
- Today is Friday, so weekly support and resistance are important. The week’s midpoint is 5,533.25, which will be a magnet for the market today.
- Traders should be prepared for a possible surprise breakout late in the day as traders decide to close the weekly chart.
- The odds favor a trading range open, which means most traders should consider not trading before the first 6-12 bars unless they can make quick decisions.
- Most traders should try to catch the opening swing, which will likely begin before the end of the second hour. It is common for the opening swing to begin after the formation of a double top/bottom or a wedge top/bottom. This means a trader can wait for one of these patterns to form and look to enter on a stop entry, giving them a decent probability with good risk/reward.
Emini Intra-Day Update
- The Emini sold off on the open, attempting to break out below yesterday’s low.
- The problem with the selloff on the open is that it is getting too much opposite buying pressure. This increases the odds of the market forming a trading range and reversing up from yesterday’s low.
- Swing bears likely exit above bar 6. Swing bulls will buy above bar 6 taking a chance it leads to an early low of the day.
- The market formed a strong bull bar on 9. However, it is a climactic bear within an overall trading range. The bears formed a two-legged pullback down to bar 13.
- The odds favor a second leg up above the 10 high and a possible test of the bar 1 high.
- As of bar 16, the bulls are getting their second leg up. Bulls want a measured move up of the opening range.
Yesterday’s Emini setups
Al created the SP500 Emini charts.
Here are reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. I show each buy entry bar with a green arrow and each sell entry bar with a red arrow. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a near 4-year library of more detailed explanations of swing trade setups (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups). Encyclopedia members get current daily charts added to Encyclopedia.
My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.
It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.
If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro Emini.
Summary of today’s S&P Emini price action
Al created the SP500 Emini charts.
See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.
Trading Room
Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed Emini price action real-time each day in the BrooksPriceAction.com trading room days. We offer a 2 day free trial.
Charts use Pacific Time
When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.
