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Emini 5,300 Round Number Is Near

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Trading Update: Monday May 13, 2024

S&P Emini pre-open market analysis

Emini daily chart

  • The Emini is getting near the 5,300 round number and will probably reach it over the next few days.
  • The bears do not mind if the market reaches the 5,300 round number as long as they can form a successful major trend reversal and a downside test of the April 19th low.
  • Next, the bears will try to get a successful break below the April 19th neckline and measured move down of the (March 21st high to the April 19th low), which projects down to below 4,700.
  • Without stronger selling pressure, a test of 4,700 is not likely anytime soon.
  • The rally up to the May high is tight, and the odds favor higher prices.
  • It is important to realize that a trading range is most likely. This means that the market will likely begin to go sideways soon.
  • The bulls have a measured move target of 5,317.25 from the bear flag (April 19th low to the April 29th high). They will likely reach this target soon.
  • Since the market is in a trading range, traders will expect a test of the April 29th breakout point over the next several weeks and for the market to close the breakout point.
  • Overall, the market is Always In Long within an overall trading range. The bears need to do more to make the market Always In Short.
  • It is important to realize that an Always In Long market within a trading range vs a trend are two different things.
  • When a market becomes clearly bullish within a trading range, the upside is usually limited, and the market often gets a deep pullback soon. This means traders should expect the bulls to become disappointed this week by sideways trading or a deep pullback.
  • Overall, traders should expect the market to get closer to the 5,300 round number. However, the bulls will probably be disappointed soon since the market is in a trading range.

Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today

  • Emini is up 16 points in the overnight Globex session.
  • The Globex market on the 15-minute chart has been in a tight bull channel, with most closes above the 20-period moving average.
  • This increases the odds of sideways to up trading without more selling pressure.
  • The Bulls recently formed an upside outside up bar at 9:15 AM EST. This increases the odds of sideways trading for the next several bars.
  • Outside bars are expanding triangles (trading range) on smaller time frames. This increases the odds of sideways trading for at least 1-3 bars.
  • The market may have to test sideways to down on the open of the U.S. Session.
  • This means that the upside on the open is likely limited. Traders will pay attention to see what kind of selling pressure the bears can create.
  • There is an 80% chance of a trading range open and only a 20% chance of a trend from the open.
  • Traders should be patient on the open and consider waiting for 6-12 bars. This is because of the 80% probability of trading range stated above.

Emini Intra-Day Update

  • The Emini formed a strong bear reversal bar on bar 1, closing on its low.
  • It is a strong enough bar to likely get a measured move down and at least limit the upside for the next several bars.
  • Bar 2 is a follow-through bar closing on its low. The market is Always In Short and likely going low.
  • The bears are hopeful this is the beginning of a bear trend from the open that will lead to a test down to yesterday’s low.
  • As of bar 3, the market is too strong to be buying to go long, without more buying pressure.
  • The bears ended up getting the measured move down with bars 1-2 during bar 25.
  • Bar 25 is disappointing for the bears and increases the odds of sideways trading soon.
  • The bulls are hopeful that the market will reverse up around bar 27 and test up to the most recent major lower high (bar 22).
  • Bar 29 is a good reversal bar for the bulls. Next, bull s need strong follow-through breaking above the EMA. Bulls want to reach the major lower high at bar 22.
  • Bar 29 is a good reversal bar for the bulls. Next, bulls need strong follow-through breaking above the EMA. Bulls want to reach the major lower high at bar 22.
  • The bears formed a larger 2nd leg down to bar 45, which was a test of the 60-minute EMA. The Bulls are getting a strong reversal up with bars 46-47. This increases the odds that the market is now in a trading range and going to try and test of to the most recent major lower high, bar 32.

Friday’s Emini setups

SP500 Emini 5-Min Chart Bear Trend From Open Then Trading Range

Al created the SP500 Emini charts.

Here are reasonable stop entry setups from Friday. I show each buy entry bar with a green arrow and each sell entry bar with a red arrow. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a near 4-year library of more detailed explanations of swing trade setups (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups). Encyclopedia members get current daily charts added to Encyclopedia.

My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.

It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.

If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro Emini.

EURUSD Forex market trading strategies

EURUSD Forex daily chart

  • The bears formed a bear reversal bar on Friday, following Thursday’s bull outside up bar on May 9th.
  • The outside up bar was strong enough to expect at least a small 2nd leg up, which is where the market found buyers today.
  • The next target for the bulls is the May 3rd high of the rally.
  • The Bears want a double top with the May 3rd high and a credible sell signal bar closing on its low. Next, the bears want a break below the May 9th neckline and for the market to fall for a measured move down to around the May 1st low.
  • The May 1st low is important because it was a possible higher low major trend reversal.  
  • The problem with this argument is that the May 1st low is not enough bars to form a credible major trend reversal. This increases the risk that the market will have to test the May 1st low and create a double bottom higher low major trend reversal. This would be a more credible reversal pattern for the bulls.
  • The bears are hopeful that the potential double top with the May 3rd high will lead to a strong downside breakout and trap the bulls. Next, the Bears want a breakout below April 1.

Summary of today’s S&P Emini price action

SP500 Emini 5-Min Chart Bear Trend From Open Midday Reversal Then Trading Range

Al created the SP500 Emini charts.

End of day video review

Live stream videos to follow Monday, Wednesday and Friday (subject to change).

See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.

Trading Room

Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed Emini price action real-time each day in the BrooksPriceAction.com trading room days. We offer a 2 day free trial.

Charts use Pacific Time

When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.

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