Market Overview: DAX 40 Futures
DAX futures rose last week with a reversal bar at a measured move target. The bears needed good follow-through under that bar. But you can see a lot of traders scalped the targets below. We might need to come back up to find more sellers. 18000 was support for many bars, and I think we will go back there to see if traders will sell it again.
DAX 40 Futures
The Weekly DAX chart
- Last week, the DAX 40 futures chart was a bull reversal bar closing on its high with a big tail below.
- The bears hit their measured move target below and broke more swing points from the bull channel.
- We triggered a wedge top after 3 legs up, but it wasn’t a strong take-off. Most traders expected sideways, hence the several dojis.
- The bears had their first strong close below the MA in a long time.
- Bulls were expected to buy from them there.
- The Bears have an open breakout gap now with the range above. They want this to be the start of a bear spike and channel down.
- The bar is closing on its high, so it’s a weak sell above. I think the best the bulls can get in the short term is a gap close.
- If bears can get another good bear bar for a sell below and sell above, that would be ideal.
- Bulls want the opposite, a strong bull bar closing far above last week to scare the bears out.
- The bulls see a lower-low double bottom, a test of the swing point, and they are looking for trend resumption back up the trading range’s high.
- The bull trend was strong and lasted many bars, so it is more likely to go sideways to up than straight down.
- If a bear sells below that bear bar, they are likely disappointed with the entry bar, but there is no reason to exit until it closes into the bar’s range.
- We might need to return to 18000 to see if traders will sell there again.
- It might have been a vacuum test of support, and we will head back to the MA again.
- Expect sideways next week.
The Daily DAX chart
- The DAX 40 futures on Friday was a bull bar closing on its high below the 20 MA.
- The Bulls see a sell climax at the 200 MA, HTF support.
- The market often races to support or resistance and then stops.
- Bulls, who were looking for a trend resumption high, gave up on the idea and the buy orders appeared at breakout points below.
- Bears have a strong spike and want continuation into a bear channel, so they will probably get it. The problem is the distance from the MA.
- Selling here is a wide stop, and the breakout point and MA are far above.
- The bulls should probably get two more legs sideways to the top of the second-last bear bar in the spike.
- In a TTR, traders buy highs and lows. So, I think bulls are stuck under the low of the trading range and scaling in to get there.
- When they give up, the second leg down starts.
- The bulls went above an inside bar, breaking a swing high.
- The pain trade would be to just work higher in a small pullback bull trend trapping bear selling above.
- We are always short on this timeframe, so expect sideways to down next week.
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