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Emini new high in June but no clear breakout

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Trading Update: Wednesday June 9, 2021

Emini pre-open market analysis

Emini daily chart

  • Emini new high in 10-day tight trading range at top of 9-week trading range, so Breakout Mode.
  • Strong trend since May 19 low, and strong trend since March 2020 low, so odds slightly favor bull breakout.
  • There is a measured move target at 4,244.00 on the weekly chart that I have talked about for months. It is an important magnet, and only 21 points above today’s high.
  • Bulls want strong breakout above 9-week tight trading range, and then a 200-point measured move up, based on the height of the range.
  • Bulls need a couple bull bars closing near their highs, before traders will conclude that the breakout is successful.
  • Yesterday made a new all-time high on the open, but then reversed down to below Monday’s low. It was therefore an outside down day.
  • Traders bought below Monday’s low, and the Emini reversed back up to above yesterday’s high, becoming an outside up day.
  • Yesterday tested into gap below June 4 low, but did not close the gap.
  • There have been several breakouts, above and below the trading range since it began in April.
  • Each one reversed and led to a breakout in the opposite direction. This is therefore an expanding triangle.
  • Since that is just a type of trading range, it does not change anything. The chart is still in Breakout Mode.
  • Yesterday was another breakout above the range, but the bulls need follow-through buying today, or tomorrow for the breakout to be successful.
  • The bears need a bear bar and a reversal down within the next few days, for traders to conclude that the breakout has failed.

Overnight Emini Globex trading on 5-minute chart

  • Up 7 points in Globex session. Might gap above yesterday’s high. If so, gap will probably be small, and small gaps typically close in 1st hour or so.
  • Most days over past few weeks have had at least one swing up and one swing down, so traders will look for at least one reversal today.
  • Since testing top of trading range, there should be either strong breakout, or strong reversal down at some point, which means one or more strong trend days in either direction.
  • If series of strong trend bars in the 1st hour, day traders will expect trend day. If not, they will look for reversals, like they have been doing for a couple weeks.

Yesterday’s Emini setups

Emini outside down and then outside up

Here are several reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. I show each buy entry with a green rectangle and each sell entry with a red rectangle. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a much more detailed explanation of the swing trades for each day (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups).

My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter.

If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro Emini.

EURUSD Forex market trading strategies

EURUSD Forex daily chart

EURUSD Forex wedge bull flag but possible double top
  • Near the top of 12-month and 7-year trading ranges.
  • Yesterday was a small bear inside day, in middle of 4-week tight trading range.
  • A bear bar is a low probability High 1 buy signal bar. There is an increased chance of sellers above.
  • Trading range is Breakout Mode, which means that the probability of a successful bull breakout, is about the same as a successful bear breakout.
  • Strong bull trend since March 31, so odds slightly higher for bull breakout.
  • Friday reversed up from a 3-week wedge bull flag.
  • Traders see yesterday as a pullback from Friday’s and Monday’s rally, which was the 1st leg up. Bulls hope that today is start of 1- to 3-day 2nd leg up.
  • Bears want double top with June 1 high, which would be double top lower high major trend reversal.
  • There is no sense that the price is terribly wrong and therefore no emotion to create a sustained move in either direction.
  • All trading ranges eventually break into trends, but until they do, traders will continue to look for reversals every few days.

Overnight EURUSD Forex trading on 5-minute chart

  • Today broke above yesterday’s high, which triggered a High 1 bull flag buy signal in the rally that began June 4.
  • Breakout stalled at 3 pips above yesterday’s high, and therefore the breakout has been weak. This was likely because yesterday was a bear bar in a tight trading range.
  • Day traders so far have been scalping up and down.
  • They will switch to swing trading if there is a series of strong trend bars up or down, but there is no sign of that yet.

Summary of today’s S&P Emini futures price action and what to expect tomorrow

  • Double top with yesterday’s all-time high on the open.
  • Micro double top and Low 2 top, but led to trading range instead of bear trend.
  • After small sell climax and 2nd leg down, reversed back up.
Emini trading range with bear breakout and bear channel

Here are several reasonable stop entry setups for today. I show each buy entry with a green rectangle and each sell entry with a red rectangle. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a much more detailed explanation of the swing trades for each day (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups).

My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter.

If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro Emini.

End of day summary

  • High 2 top on the open, but then tight trading range for most of day.
  • Continued to make lower highs all day so bear channel.
  • Late bear breakout and measured move down to below Globex low.
  • Today is bear inside day after outside day on daily chart so ioi Breakout Mode pattern.
  • Just below weekly measured move target at 4,244.
  • Tight trading range for 9 weeks so weekly chart is also in Breakout Mode.

See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.

Trading Room

Traders can see the end of the day bar-by-bar price action report by signing up for free at BrooksPriceAction.com. I talk about the detailed S&P Emini futures price action real-time throughout the day in the BrooksPriceAction.com trading room. We offer a 2 day free trial.

Charts use Pacific Time

When I mention time, it is USA Pacific Time (the Emini day session opens at 6:30 am PT, and closes at 1:15 pm PT). You can read background information on the intraday market reports on the Market Update page.

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