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Emini Bulls Upside Breakout Wanted above April 18 High

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Trading Update: Tuesday April 25, 2023

S&P Emini pre-open market analysis

Emini daily chart

Emini Tight Trading Range at 4,150. Bulls upside breakout wanted.
  • The Emini sold off, testing last Friday’s low, and rallied above the open, creating a bull reversal bar. Bulls upside breakout wanted above April 18th high.
  • At the moment, the odds slightly favor the upside breakout and test of the February 2nd high; however, if the probability truly favored the bulls, we would not be going sideways here.
  • The market continues to find support near the moving average (blue line) and 4,150.
  • There are two important targets above and below. They are the 4,000 big round number and 4,300, the measured move projection from the March 13th low to the March 22nd high.
  • It is common for the market to go sideways in the middle of an important support and resistance level. Looking at the chart, 4,150 is right in between the two important magnets mentioned above, which increases the odds more sideways trading around 4,150.
  • Since the market has been sideways for more than 12 bars, it is in breakout mode, which means the probability is close to 50% for a breakout up or down.
  • Also, the market has been above the moving average for 18 bars, another sign of strength by the bulls.
  • Overall, most traders should wait for a breakout up or down. If the bulls or bears start to get consecutive strong trend bars, the probability will increase for a successful breakout.

Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today

  • Emini is down 18 points in the overnight Globex session.
  • The overnight Globex session sold off but failed to break below the April 24th low.
  • The bulls see the early selloff below the April 24th low as a 2nd leg trap following yesterday’s late selloff after the U.S. Session closed.
  • On the 60-minute chart, the Globex market is in a broad bear channel for several bars with lots of decent buying pressure. This increases the odds of an upside breakout soon and a test of the most recent lower high (April 24th high).
  • Since the Globex market on the 60-minute chart is trying to form a wedge bottom, this will increase the odds of a possible rally on the open today.
  • As I often say, traders should assume that the open will have a lot of trading range trading. Most traders should wait for 6-12 bars before placing a trader unless they are quick to make decisions and can trade with limited orders.
  • There is more than an 80% chance of a swing trader on the open, beginning before the end of the second hour. The swing trade typically starts after the formation of a double top/bottom or a wedge top/bottom.
  • The most essential thing on the open is to be patient. There are 81 bars on a 5-minute chart, and by waiting for 6 bars, a trader will gain more clarity on the likely structure of the day.

Yesterday’s Emini setups

SP500 Emini 5-Min Wedge Top Spike and Channel Bear Trend

Al created the SP500 Emini charts.

Here are several reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. I show each buy entry with a green rectangle and each sell entry with a red rectangle. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a near 4-year library of more detailed explanations of swing trade setups (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups). Encyclopedia members get current daily charts added to Encyclopedia.

My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.

It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.

If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro Emini.

EURUSD Forex market trading strategies

EURUSD Forex daily chart

EURUSD Daily: Profit Taking at April 13th Close
  • The EURUSD reached the April 13th close early this morning, after yesterday closed as a bull bar closed on its high.
  • The bears tried to create a 2nd leg trap following the three-bar breakout up to April 13th. However, most 2nd leg traps lead to trading ranges and not reversals.
  • The channel up from the March low is tight. This increased the odds of the buy-the-close bulls who bought the April 13th close and lower making money.
  • Yesterday’s bull breakout is probably strong enough to have a 2nd leg up. However, the risk the bulls face is that the market is in a trading range. The bears might overwhelm the bulls and reverse yesterday’s strong bull close.
  • Overall, traders should assume that the market is probably transitioning into a trading range. This means that bulls will probably become disappointed soon, and the market will likely go sideways.

Summary of today’s S&P Emini futures price action

SP500 Emini 5-Min Bear Trend From the Open Failed Wedge Bottom

Al created the SP500 Emini charts.

End of day video review

Today’s End Of Day review will be presented in the Trading Room and only available to the trading room subscribers.

See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.

Trading Room

Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed Emini price action real-time each day in the BrooksPriceAction.com trading room days. We offer a 2 day free trial.

Charts use Pacific Time

When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.

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