Market Overview: S&P 500 Emini Futures
The market is forming a weekly Emini sideways to up, closing in new high territory. The bears want a reversal from a higher high major trend reversal. The problem with the bear’s case is that they haven’t been able to create strong bear bars with follow-through selling. Until they can do that, traders will not be willing to sell aggressively. The bulls hope the market is in a broad bull channel phase and want a resumption of the move.
S&P500 Emini futures
The Weekly S&P 500 Emini chart
- This week’s Emini candlestick was a small bull bar closing in its upper half with small tails above and below.
- Last week, we said that the market may still trade slightly higher. Traders would see if the bulls could get more follow-through bull bars or if the market would trade slightly higher but stall, forming bear bars instead.
- The bulls hope the market is in a broad bull channel phase and want a resumption of the move.
- They want another leg up completing the wedge pattern with the first two legs being March 21 and July 16 highs and completing the embedded wedge in the current leg up with the first two legs being August 30 and September 26 highs.
- The third leg up is currently underway.
- If there is a pullback, they want the 20-week EMA to act as support.
- The bears want a reversal from a higher high major trend reversal.
- They hope that the recent sideways candlesticks (mid-Sept to early Oct) will be the final flag of the move.
- They want a reversal from a large wedge (Mar 21, Jul 16, and Oct 17) and an embedded wedge (Aug 30, Sep 25, and Oct 17).
- The problem with the bear’s case is that they haven’t been able to create strong bear bars with follow-through selling. Until they can do that, traders will not be willing to sell aggressively.
- They need to create a few strong bear bars to indicate that they are back in control.
- Since this week’s candlestick is a small bull bar, it is a buy signal bar for next week albeit weaker.
- The market may still trade slightly higher.
- The recent candlesticks are becoming smaller which indicates a loss of momentum. The risk of a minor pullback is increasing.
- Traders will see if the bulls can get more follow-through bull bars as we head into the election day in less than 3 weeks.
- Or will the market trade slightly higher but stall, forming bear bars (profit-taking) in the weeks ahead instead?
- The election day represents some uncertainty. Traders should be prepared for volatility.
The Daily S&P 500 Emini chart
- The market gapped up on Monday but lacked follow-through buying. Thursday gapped up again but closed as a bear bar near its low. Friday was an inside bull doji.
- Last week, we said that the market remains Always In Long. Traders would see if the bulls could continue to create follow-through buying, breaking into new all-time high territory or if the market would trade higher but start to stall instead.
- The market traded slightly higher for the week but had a lot of overlapping ranges and poor follow-through buying which indicates stalling.
- The bulls hope the rally is in a broad bull channel phase and want a resumption of the move.
- They want the third leg to complete the large wedge pattern with the first two legs being on March 21 and July 16 and the third leg completing the embedded wedge (the first two legs being on August 26 and September 26).
- They hope the third leg up will have 2 legs and last about the same time as the prior legs (10-12 bars). So far, the third leg up consists of 9 candlesticks.
- If there is a pullback, they want it to form a higher low with the bull trend line or the 20-day EMA acting as support.
- The bears want a reversal from a higher high major trend reversal.
- They see a large wedge pattern (Mar 21, Jul 16, and Oct 17) and an embedded wedge (Aug 30, Sep 25, and currently Oct 17).
- They hope that the recent sideways consolidation (mid-Sept to early Oct) will be the final flag of the move.
- The problem with the bear’s case is that they have not yet been able to create strong bear bars with follow-through selling. The two bear bars this week had no follow-through selling too.
- They need to create consecutive bear bars closing near their lows trading far below the 20-day EMA to show they are back in control.
- For now, the market remains Always In Long.
- Until the bears can create strong bear bars with follow-through selling, traders will not be willing to sell aggressively.
- For now, traders will see if the bulls can continue to create more follow-through buying, breaking into new all-time high territory.
- Or will the market trade higher but have poor follow-through buying and stall instead?
- The election day represents some uncertainty. Traders should be prepared for volatility.
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