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Nasdaq 100 New High Close Just below April Month High

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Market Overview: Nasdaq 100 Futures

The NASDAQ Emini futures May monthly candlestick is a big bull bar with a prominent tail above. It is a new high close just below April month high.

The week is a bear bar with a long tail below. The last two weeks’ reports had made the case that at least one of the last two weeks of the month would likely be a doji/bear bar because the monthly bar had already become big. Last week was a bull bar, so this week met that expectation.

Nasdaq 100 Futures

The Monthly NASDAQ chart

Nasdaq Monthly New high close just below April month high
  • The May month bar is a big bull bar with a prominent tail above.
  • Its body overlaps with the body of April.
  • Last month’s report had said that the micro-channel up from November 2023 is likely a spike on a higher timeframe, so there should be at least a 2nd leg up.
  • May is likely the start of the 2nd leg up.
  • Note the second leg up could just be another bar – the month of June, before there is another pullback.

The Weekly NASDAQ chart

Nasdaq Weekly close below March high close
  • The week is a bear bar with a long tail below and a close just below the March high close.
  • This week was a short trading week as Monday was a trading holiday.
  • It is the first pullback in the bull micro-channel with the move up since the second half of April.
  • What is interesting is that the market sold off for most of the week, and at one point around half-way through Friday session, the weekly chart was a big bear bar.
  • It then reversed from around the high of the big bear bar of 4/15 (shown with green shaded area on chart)
  • It is likely there were limit order sellers who sold the high of 4/15 and were trapped when the week of 5/13 and 5/20 were bull bars.
  • Bulls needed this week to be another non-climactic good bull bar to convince traders the market is breaking out of trading range from March.
  • But the monthly bar being too big made that less likely.
  • Since this is the first pullback in a micro-channel, the market should make it back to at least the close of last week.

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