Market Overview: EURUSD Forex
The EURUSD Forex weekly chart bears got a pullback to the 20-week EMA (exponential moving average). The bears want a continuation down to the January 6 low or the November 21 low which was the start of the bull channel. The bulls want a reversal higher from a double bottom with January 6 low.
EURUSD Forex market
The Weekly EURUSD chart
- This week’s candlestick on the weekly EURUSD Forex chart was a big bear bar closing near its low.
- Last week, we said that traders will see if the bears can get another leg down reaching the 20-week exponential moving average or will the EURUSD trade slightly lower and form a micro double bottom with February 17 low and reverse up.
- The bears got another leg down testing the 20-week exponential moving average.
- They want a 2-legged sideways-to-down pullback lasting at least a few weeks.
- They got a reversal lower from a wedge top (Nov 15, Dec 5 and Feb 2).
- This week was the second leg down after a pullback last week.
- The next targets for the bears are the January 6 low and the November 21 low which is the start of the bull channel.
- The bears need to create consecutive bear bars trading far below the 20-week exponential moving average to convince traders that a retest of the September low is underway.
- The bulls got a strong spike and channel up from September 2022 and the market may have flipped into Always In Long.
- The strong move up increases the odds of at least a small second leg sideways to up after a deeper pullback.
- They hope to get a reversal up from a double bottom bull flag with January 6 low.
- They want the 20-week exponential moving average to act as support.
- Since this week was a bear bar closing near the low, it is a sell signal bar for next week.
- Odds slightly favor the EURUSD to trade at least a little lower.
- For now, traders will see if the bears can create strong bear bars closing below the 20-week exponential moving average or will the EURUSD trade sideways and stall around the January 6 low.
The Daily EURUSD chart
- The EURUSD traded sideways to down for the week.
- Last week, we said that the EURUSD may trade slightly higher early next week. Until the bears can create strong consecutive bear bars closing near their lows, the bulls may still get a retest of the February high.
- This week, the bears got consecutive bear bars closing near their lows.
- The bears see the move up since September as a 50% pullback of the selloff which started in May 2021.
- They got a reversal lower from a wedge top (Nov 15, Dec 15, and Feb 2) and a micro wedge (Jan 13, Jan 26 and Feb 2).
- This week, the bears got a second leg down from a double top bear flag (Feb 9 and Feb 14).
- The bears currently have a 5-bar bear micro channel which means persistent selling.
- The channel down since February 2 is in a tight bear channel which increases the odds of a larger second leg sideways to down after a pullback (bounce).
- The next targets for the bears are the January 6 low and the November 21 low which was the start of the bull channel.
- The spike & tight channel up since October means strong bulls.
- The odds slightly favor the market has flipped into Always In Long.
- The bulls want a reversal up from a higher low major trend reversal and a double bottom bull flag with January 6 low.
- They want a larger second leg sideways to up to retest February high.
- Because of the tight bear channel down, the bulls will need a strong reversal bar or at least a micro double bottom before they would be willing to buy aggressively.
- For now, odds slightly favor the EURUSD to trade at least a little lower.
- Traders will see if the bears can continue to create consecutive bear bars closing near their lows, or will the EURUSD trade slightly lower but reverse higher around the January 6 low area.
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