Curso de Trading de Brooks

Aprenda a operar con la acción del precio de forma consistente

 

More results...

Emini Pullback within Broad Bull Channel

By

Market Overview: S&P 500 Emini Futures

The monthly chart formed an Emini pullback within a broad bull channel testing the 20-month exponential moving average and the bull trend line. The bulls see the market as still being in a broad bull channel and want a reversal to retest the July 27 high. The bears got the first pair of consecutive bear bars since last year (Sept 2022). They will need to create more follow-through selling closing far below the 20-month EMA to increase the odds of a reversal down.

S&P500 Emini futures

The Monthly Emini chart

Emini Monthly: Test BO Point, 20-Month EMA & Bull Trend Line, Emini pullback
  • The September monthly Emini candlestick was a big bear bar closing near its low.
  • Last month, we said until the bears can create strong bear bars with follow-through selling, odds slightly favor the market to still be in Always In Long.
  • The bears managed to get follow-through selling in September testing the 20-month EMA.
  • They see the prior rally (Jul 27) as a retest of the all-time high and want a reversal from a lower high major trend reversal.
  • September was the first pair of consecutive bear bars since last year (Sept 2022). 
  • The bears will need to create more follow-through selling closing far below the 20-month EMA to increase the odds of a reversal down.
  • Previously, the bulls managed to create a tight bull channel from March to July. 
  • That increases the odds of at least a small second leg sideways to up after the current pullback.
  • They see the pullback in August and September simply as a test of the Feb 2 breakout point, the 20-month EMA and the bull trend line. 
  • The bulls want the 20-month EMA to hold as support. They see the current move simply as a deep pullback within a broad bull channel.
  • They want a retest of the July 27 high followed by a breakout and a test of the all-time high. 
  • Since September’s candlestick was a bear bar closing near its low, it is a sell signal bar for October.
  • The Emini may still trade at least a little lower.
  • Traders will see if the bears can create more follow-through selling closing below the 20-month EMA. 
  • Or will the market trade slightly below the 20-month EMA but reverse to close above it by the end of the month?
  • For now, until the bears can create consecutive strong bear bars trading far below the 20-month EMA, odds slightly favor the market to still be in Always In Long.

The Weekly S&P 500 Emini chart

Emini Weekly: Test BO Point and Bull Trend Line
  • This week’s Emini candlestick was a bear bar with a long tail below.
  • Last week, we said that odds slightly favor the Emini to trade at least a little lower and traders will see if the bears can create follow-through selling or will the market trade slightly lower but reverse up with a long tail below or a bull body.
  • This week traded lower but reversed to close with a long tail below, closing around the middle of the candlestick.
  • Previously, the bulls got a strong trend up (from March) in a tight bull channel. 
  • The bulls hope to get a retest of the July 27 high from a double bottom bull flag (Aug 18 and Sept 27).
  • They want the Emini to reverse back above the 20-week exponential moving average.
  • They see the current move down simply as a deep pullback within a broad bull channel.
  • The bears got a two-legged pullback testing the breakout point (Feb 2) and the bull trend line.
  • They got follow-through selling this week and a consecutive bear bar below the 20-week EMA.
  • They want a strong breakout below the bull trend line with follow-through selling.
  • If there is a pullback (bounce), they want another leg down to complete the wedge pattern with the first 2 legs being August 18 and September 27.
  • Since this week’s candlestick was a bear bar with a long tail below, it is a sell signal bar for next week albeit weaker.
  • Traders will see if the bears can continue creating follow-through selling or will the market stall around the current levels.
  • For now, while the Emini could still trade a little lower, odds slightly favor the market to still be Always In Long.
  • However, if the bears continue to get consecutive bear bars closing near their lows, that will increase the odds of a reversal down.

Trading room

Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed Emini price action real-time each day in the BrooksPriceAction.com trading room. We offer a 2 day free trial.

Market analysis reports archive

You can access all weekend reports on the Market Analysis page.

>