Trading Update: Friday June 11, 2021
Emini pre-open market analysis
Emini daily chart
- Yesterday was rollover day for the Emini, so traders should trade the September contract today.
- Yesterday reversed up from below the open of the week, and the open of the month.
- It closed near its open and in the middle of the day’s range, forming a doji bar on the daily chart. This is neutral. Traders need more information before concluding that the breakout above the 2-month trading range will succeed or fail.
- Emini weak breakout above May high. Bulls need strong follow-through buying soon, if this is going to be the start of a 200-point measured move up.
- Yesterday closed above May 7 breakout point. If bulls can form a bull bar today, that also closes above that high, there would be consecutive bull bars closing above a breakout point. That would increase the chance of higher prices next week.
- If they fail to get follow-through buying soon, they will sell out of their longs. Also, bears will suspect the breakout is failing and they will sell more aggressively.
- Today is Friday, so weekly support and resistance can be important.
- Bulls want the week to close above the open of the week. That would increase the chance of higher prices next week.
- Open of week is only about 10 points below yesterday’s close, and it therefore might get tested today.
- Bulls want week closes above yesterday’s high, at a new all-time high.
- Bears want the week to close below the open, so that it would have a bear body. That would increase the chance of sideways to down trading next week.
- Market often pulls back in the middle of June, ahead of the June 26 through July 5 bullish seasonal tendency. It is the end of the quarter, and many institutions buy the best stocks of the quarter so that their portfolios look better in the quarterly reports (end of the quarter window dressing).
- There might be some euphoria just before a holiday, and the start of the summer.
Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today
- Up 9 points in the overnight Globex session.
- Most important magnets today are the open of the week (about 10 points below yesterday’s close), the May 7 high (about 6 points below yesterday’s close), and yesterday’s high (all-time high).
- Yesterday was in trading range for final 4 hours, and today will probably open in that range. That would increase the chance of a trading range open.
- Bulls want trend resumption up after yesterday’s strong bull trend reversal.
- Bears hope the rally will form a lower high, and reverse down.
- Most days over past several weeks have had at least one swing up, and one swing down, so that is likely again today.
- If there is a series of strong trend bars in either direction in the 1st hour, there would be an increased chance of a strong trend day. Most days have at least one reversal.
Yesterday’s Emini setups
Here are several reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. I show each buy entry with a green rectangle and each sell entry with a red rectangle. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a much more detailed explanation of the swing trades for each day (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups).
My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter.
If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro Emini.
EURUSD Forex market trading strategies
EURUSD Forex daily chart
- Turning down from lower high double top with June 1 high. Therefore, possible bear channel.
- Middle of 2-month trading range, so Breakout Mode, and traders looking for reversals every few days.
- Bulls want double bottom with June 4, May 13, or May 5 lows.
- Today is Friday, so weekly support and resistance can be important.
- This week so far is a bear inside bar, and it follows a double top 2 weeks ago with the February 25 high.
- If this week closes below its midpoint, and especially near its low, it will be a good sell signal bar on the weekly chart.
- Bears want week to break below last week’s low (June 4 low), and close below that low.
- Bulls want week to close above the open, but that is unlikely, given the strong trend down overnight on the 5 minute chart.
- The more the week closes near its low, the more likely next week will be lower, which means more likely the selloff will test the 1.20 area.
- If today can reverse up, and close in the middle of today’s range, traders will expect more sideways trading next week.
- At the moment, it looks like the EURUSD will trade at least a little lower next week.
Overnight EURUSD Forex trading on 5-minute chart
- Strong overnight bear trend. Day traders have only been selling, and many have been swing trading.
- The daily range is about average, which means the trend will probably not continue much lower.
- There was an unusually big bear bar in the last hour. That might be an exhaustive sell climax.
- The bulls want the strong bear trend to convert into a trading range. It is unlikely that the 1st reversal up will become a bull trend. The strong bear trend will probably have to transition into a trading range, before the bulls can get a strong reversal up.
- Day traders will only sell until there is at least a 20- to 30-pip rally. At that point, they will expect a trading range, and then they will begin to buy reversals up from the low for scalps.
- Unless there is an extremely strong reversal up (50 or more pips), it will probably be easier to make money selling all day.
- Once the bear trend converts into a trading range, the bears will switch to scalping from swing trading.
- Bulls want today to close above yesterday’s low. That is only 31 pips above the current low, and therefore possible.
- Today will probably close around yesterday’s low or below, and therefore near the low of the week.
Summary of today’s S&P Emini futures price action and what to expect tomorrow
Here are several reasonable stop entry setups for today. I show each buy entry with a green rectangle and each sell entry with a red rectangle. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a much more detailed explanation of the swing trades for each day (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups).
My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter.
If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro Emini.
End of day summary
- Bear Trend From The Open, but it was weak.
- Midday reversal up from the 60-minute EMA and the May 7 high.
- Reversal up contained 15-bar bul micro channel, which was strong enough to keep the day Always In Long into the end of the day.
- Rally into the close, and today closed above the open.
- On daily chart, consecutive bull bars closing of May 7 high increase the chance of a successful breakout above 2-month trading range.
- Breakout so far is small and weak. Bulls need strong bull bars this week to increase chance of 200-point measured move up.
- Inside bar on daily chart so sell signal bar for failed breakout of May 7 high and High 1 buy signal bar.
- Since small bull doji in tight bull channel, low probability sell signal.
- When weak buy and sell signals, increased chance of sideways early next week.
- Since strong bull trend, odds favor higher prices over next couple weeks.
See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.
Trading Room
Traders can see the end of the day bar-by-bar price action report by signing up for free at BrooksPriceAction.com. I talk about the detailed S&P Emini futures price action real-time throughout the day in the BrooksPriceAction.com trading room. We offer a 2 day free trial.
Charts use Pacific Time
When I mention time, it is USA Pacific Time (the Emini day session opens at 6:30 am PT, and closes at 1:15 pm PT). You can read background information on the intraday market reports on the Market Update page.
