Trading Update: Thursday October 17, 2024
S&P Emini market analysis
Emini daily chart
- The Emini formed a High 1 buy signal bar yesterday and found buyers on today’s open The odds favor disappointment for the bulls above the High 1. This means that there will likely be sellers above it.
- The market formed a 6-bar bull microchannel up to the October 14th high, increasing the odds of buyers on the first reversal down and the market testing the October 14th high.
- The odds still favor a test of the September 26th breakout point, increasing the odds of a pullback.
- Traders should expect the bulls to become disappointed over the next several days and for the market to go sideways soon.
- The bears are hopeful that today forms a bear bar closing on its low. This would create a second entry short for the bears and increase the odds of profit-taking bulls.
- The problem that the bears have is that the channel up is tight, and the bears have not had a close below the moving average since September 10th.
- The bears need to get close below the moving average as a way to demonstrate an increase in selling pressure.
Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today
- The Emini gapped up on the open and found strong selling on bar 1. This is because the context was bad for the bulls. This was due to the gap up triggering a weak High 1 buy signal bar on the daily chart that had a bad context.
- The bear breakout was strong enough for a second leg up, which is why the market found sellers above bars 3-4.
- Bar 2 had a tail below the bar and was near yesterday’s high, which was likely to act as support.
- This increased the odds that there were likely buyers below the bar 4 low on any second leg down
- The buying pressure up to bar 11 increases the odds of a trading range and not a bear trend day.
- Bears are hopeful that the selloff on bars 1-2 is strong enough to lead to a larger second leg down.
Yesterday’s Emini setups
Al created the SP500 Emini charts.
Summary of today’s S&P Emini price action
Al created the SP500 Emini charts.
End of day video review
Periodic end of day review videos will be moved to top of page when done.
See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.
Trading Room
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Charts use Pacific Time
When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.