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Emini Buyers near Moving Average

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Trading Update: Wednesday March 6, 2024

S&P Emini pre-open market analysis

Emini daily chart

  • The Emini gapped down and sold off yesterday following Monday’s bear reversal bar. This was likely a sell vacuum test of the moving average. This means that there are probably buyers near the moving average.
  • This was a sell vacuum test of the daily moving average, which increased the odds of buyers near it.
  • Yesterday’s selloff became climactic, and the bulls could overwhelm the bears as traders began buying aggressively, which resulted in a rally back to the midpoint of yesterday’s range.
  • Although the odds favored a pullback after last Friday’s rally, buying below Monday’s low was reasonable. This increases the odds that the market will have to test back to Monday’s low and allow the scale in bulls out.
  • The daily chart is in a tight bull channel. This means sideways to up is more likely than a strong reversal down.
  • Bulls will continue to buy near the moving average until the bears are above the overwhelm the bulls and get strong closes below the moving average. This means there will likely be buying limit orders at the moving average and slightly above it, expecting a bounce.
  • The bears are doing an excellent job of creating selling pressure at new highs. This will increase the odds of a trading range soon.
  • However, the bears need to do more. Traders want to see the bears get 2-3 strong closes below the moving average before they are convinced that the bears will be able to take control.
  • Even if the bears can get 2-3 closes below the moving average, the odds favor a trading range more than a bear trend.

Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today

  • Emini is up 30 points in the overnight Globex session.
  • The overnight Globex session rallied, creating a second leg up after yesterday’s reversal up.
  • The bulls want to create follow-through buying today after the rally during the overnight session.
  • Traders should expect a trading range open lasting at least 6 – 12 bars. This means that there is no rush to enter the market.
  • Traders can wait for a double top/bottom or a wedge top/bottom before placing a trade.
  • There is a 20% chance of a trend from the open. If the day is going to be a trend day, the odds are it will be a bull trend due to the market likely getting gap up.
  • There is an 80% chance of a trading range open, which means there is an 80% chance of the market forming a double top/bottom or a wedge top/bottom.
  • The bulls want a strong reversal up and test of yesterday’s high. The bears need to prevent the bulls from getting a strong reversal bar closing on its high.
  • If the bulls can get a strong reversal bar, it will increase the risk that bears get trapped.  

Yesterday’s Emini setups

SP500 Emini 5-Min Chart Bear Trend From The Open Then Late Rally

Al created the SP500 Emini charts.

Here are reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. I show each buy entry bar with a green arrow and each sell entry bar with a red arrow. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a near 4-year library of more detailed explanations of swing trade setups (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups). Encyclopedia members get current daily charts added to Encyclopedia.

My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.

It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.

If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro Emini.

EURUSD Forex market trading strategies

EURUSD Forex daily chart

EURUSD Daily: Bulls Holding Above Moving Average
  • The EURUSD is continuing to hold above the moving average.
  • The bulls are hopeful that a small pullback bull trend is underway, although they need to show more buying pressure to confirm it.
  • The bears want to stop the buying pressure and prevent the market from stabilizing above the moving average.
  • Overall, because of the buying pressure, the downside is probability limited unless the bears can create more selling pressure.

Summary of today’s S&P Emini price action

SP500 Emini 5-Min Chart Bear Trap Then Trading Range Day

Al created the SP500 Emini charts.

See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.

Trading Room

Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed Emini price action real-time each day in the BrooksPriceAction.com trading room days. We offer a 2 day free trial.

Charts use Pacific Time

When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.

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