Trading Update: Thursday August 29, 2024
End of day video review
S&P Emini market analysis
Emini daily chart
- The Emini sold off yesterday, breaking below the August 22nd low, and found buyers below.
- August 22nd was a strong enough bear bar that the odds favored a second leg down. This meant that the odds favored the market going at least one tick below the August 22nd low.
- Because the August rally has been strong, the odds favored buyers below the August 22nd low and higher prices. The bulls are trying to get a reversal up from and a breakout above the 7-day tight trading range.
Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today
- The Emini gapped up on the up and went sideway for the first 6 bars of the day. This is a warning that today, there may be a lot of trading range price action today.
- As of bar 13, the bulls are trying to form a small pullback bull trend. The problem that the bulls have is that the market is forming a wedge top at yesterday’s high. This increases the risk of a reversal down.
- The bulls need to do more than what they have done up to bar 13 if today will become a strong bull trend day.
- Always In Bulls will likely exit below the bear bar, closing on its low (bar 15). The risk for the bulls is an opening reversal from a wedge top and a possible high of the day.
- Bar 16, the bulls are getting too many closes above the moving average. This increases the odds that any reversal down will be minor and lead to a trading range for the bears.
- The bears need to make the market go sideways before they can get a strong reversal down.
- While the bulls have done a good job with the rally, the odds favor it transitioning into a trading range.
Yesterday’s Emini setups
Al created the SP500 Emini charts.
EURUSD Forex market trading strategies
EURUSD Forex daily chart
- The EURUSD formed a bear breakout with follow-through today, closing below its midpoints. This is a strong enough reversal that the odds favor a second leg down.
- The recent two-day selloff is causing disappointment going into the final trading day of the month.
- The bears are trying to create as much of a tail as possible on the high of the bar.
- While the market is Always In Long, the odds favor the bears getting a second leg down.
- The bears need to get closes below the moving average in order to convince traders to sell the close.
- The bulls need a second entry buy closing on its high if they are going to get a reversal up. Without it, the best the bulls will likely get is sideways.
Summary of today’s S&P Emini price action
Al created the SP500 Emini charts.
See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.
Trading Room
Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed Emini price action real-time each day in the BrooksPriceAction.com trading room days. We offer a 2 day free trial.
Charts use Pacific Time
When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.