Market Video Overview: FTSE 100 Futures
Tim Fairweather’s weekly report on the FTSE 100 futures market.
FTSE 100 report AI transcript
Hi everyone and welcome back to another Brooks Trading Course weekend market update. My name is Tim Fairweather. I’m a professional price action day trader. And today I’m going to cover the FTSE 100 futures. So let’s go and take a look.
Well, let’s take a look at the monthly chart. So as we covered last week, the monthly chart was a bear inside bar, and it’s got a small tail below, and it’s sitting in a bull channel.
So the bears see it as a second entry short. We triggered below this bear bar, also an inside bar, and now we’ve got another bear inside bar. So we’re looking for a trigger below that bar.
What are the bulls doing? Well, the bulls have got three consecutive bull bars closing on their highs. We’ve had a pause.
We’ve triggered above a buy signal once, and I suspect we’re going to do it again. So even if the bears are able to get down lower, bulls are going to be happy to buy above anything below that. Bullish or fade anything bearish above that moving average. It’s a breakout test of the prior all time high.
On the FTSE 100 futures weekly chart, we can see what we said last week about fading below a bear inside bar. The bulls would be happy to buy under that bar and the moving average, betting that this is not going to be the start of a stronger pullback. Bears had a chance to create a spike, but they had a couple of legs. One, fours, foo. Pullback three or one or two. We’re starting to go above the high of pullbacks.
This was a pullback for the bears. They see it as a lower high and they’ve got a deeper push down, but now we’ve gone above that. So bears need to work very hard to convince traders. That’s the place for a stop for a swing down instead. Bulls are seeing this as a broad bull channel. They know the best the bears are going to get is probably a wedge.
And at this stage, it’s probably not going to be a lower low. It’s going to be a higher low for that wedge and inverse head and shoulders. So traders are happy to buy below anything bearish, buy the moving average and scale in lower. Betting we’re going to go and test back up to the all time highest. So it wasn’t a very good stop entry above last week, and we didn’t even go up to trigger it.
Traders probably bought the close of that bull bar, which is a reasonable trade. They’re also able to buy below that bar by below that fair inside bar. And it looks like they got back to the high of that bar, but there’s no reason for those traders to panic. It’s a tight trading range.
There’s been a lot of reversals and it’s 50 50, but in situations like this. When we call it 50 50 breakout mode, I always give an extra 5 percent to the traders that have the moving average. The 20 bar EMA, we’re above the 200. So I’m going to give that extra percentage to the bulls. Are we always in long or always in short? Well, if this is the swing point down here, or if the bottom of the strong bull breakout is the low of the swing point, we never broke it.
And this is probably the reason it’s difficult for bears to swing. They’ve got to put a stop all the way up here, and they’re selling in the middle of a trading range. As we get up higher, we might find more bear, more bears willing to sell there. But what’s the point? We’re always in long. We’re above the moving averages.
It’s probably better to buy and buy lower, rather than having to fade a bull breakout in a bull trend. So on the FTSE 100 futures, Next week, still always in long, still above the moving average, but it’s really for, uh, more experienced traders trading in a tight trading range, otherwise waiting for the next buy signal.
So let’s take a look at the FTSE 100 daily chart. So on the daily chart, we can see that tight trading range breakout mode and that triangle. That we’re squeezing in, we’ve got slightly lower highs and we’re starting to get higher lows and it’s squeezing into this price range. So what do the bulls see?
Well, they still see a bull channel. You can see that, you can see that wedge bottom and attempt to double top bear flag for a trend down failed. So it’s a bull channel. We’ve got a bull breakout, breaks a trend line. And then down here, we get a lower low. So bulls see it as a lower low major trend reversal.
And they want this to keep going up, which is likely in a bull channel. But bears keep getting sets you. Of very strong bear bars. 1, 2, 3, 4, 5. 3 huge bear bars. 4, 5. 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 in a row. Bears are not ready to give up on this price point yet. I’ve highlighted a couple of wedge trades within that trading range, but you can see there’s a lot of reversals and sideways price action.
Last week, even though the bears were able to get a strong sell down, There was no follow through, and we immediately came back to the midpoint. And I suspect the same is going to happen for the bulls. Bulls are happy to buy under the moving average, betting we’re going to go up and run those skunk stops, but then go sideways and come back.
So not great for stop entry traders on this time frame. Is it always in long or always in short on this time frame? Well, let’s take a look. That was the last swing point for the bulls from the high. And we went below it. So that puts the market into a trading range. Some traders might argue that because there’s two swing points here, we took out both that it’s always in short.
Either way, once we went above the high of that spike here, we put it back into a trading range. So rather than getting too hung up on the swing points, you can just take a look and go, well, we’re going sideways. This moving average is the 200 is up. So it’s probably a continuation pattern in a higher timeframe bull trend.
Bear’s got a spike three legged pullback. But have really struggled to get continuation down here. Do they get one more leg? So it’s ABCD to close that gap. That’s possible in a trading range, but the bulls are going to be defending this. Now you’ve got a higher timeframe, moving average and an open gap, and they want bears to fail here.
That will allow bulls to buy low in this trading range for a test of the all time high. So a trading range on the daily chart and always in long on the weekly and the monthly chart. So difficult for stop entry traders on these higher time frames. We’re in breakout mode waiting for a stronger signal. So probably better to be trading a lower time frame chart where the price action is a little bit more clear.
Well, thanks very much for watching. It’s been a Brooks Trading Course Weekend Market Update. My name’s Tim Fairweather and I’ll see you next week. Happy trading.
Market analysis reports archive
You can access all weekend reports on the Market Analysis page.
