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Emini Open of Month Within Reach

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Trading Update: Thursday October 31, 2024

S&P Emini market analysis

Emini daily chart

  • The Emini formed a bear reversal bar yesterday. The bears want a strong entry bar today and for the market to reverse down to the open of the month at 5,808.75.
  • The bears managed to get a downside breakout during the Globex hours, meaning the daily chart gaped during the U.S. Open.
  • The bulls will see the market as being in a trading range over the past 15 bars. This means that they will look to buy below support, such as the October 23rd low.
  • Today will probably spend a lot of time around the open of that month as the institutions decide where the month will close.
  • The bears want to get a close below the October 26th breakout point low, which would be a sign of bulls losing strength. If bears can close breakout points at new highs, that is a sign that they can make money. This will increase the odds of the daily chart converting into a trading range.

Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today

  • The Emini formed a large gap down on the open. This is a strong enough gap that the odds favor a 2nd leg down, which the bears are getting with bar 4.
  • While bar 4 is good for the bears, it is a possible sell climax far from the moving average. This increases the risk of a potential early low for the next few hours.
  • The bears are hopeful that the gap down and selloff on bar 4 is a sign that the market will create a bear trend day.
  • While a bear trend is possible, the market will probably have to test closer to the moving average first.
  • The bears formed an open gap with bar 1 low and bar 6 high. This was a possible measuring gap and a sign that the market may be forming a small pullback bear trend.
  • The bears have had a strong selloff down to bar 18. However, it is becoming parabolic, which increases the risk of a pullback up to the moving average.
  • The bulls are hopeful that they will be able to get to the open of the month before the end of the day.
  • If the bulls are going to get there, they will first need to build more buying pressure.
  • Bar 27, the bulls are beginning to make the market go sideways. This is good for the bulls and increases the odds of a trading range forming. Next, the bulls need to get close above the moving average as a sign of increased buying pressure.
  • The Bulls got the rally above the moving average on bar 36. This is a 20-gap bar short and increases the odds of a trading range or bear flag.
  • The Bears got back down to the 29 close. The Bulls want a double bottom on bar 52.
    However, the channel down to the 52 low is tight, which increases the odds of a trading range.
  • Bar 27, the bulls are beginning to make the market go sideways. This is good for the bulls and increases the odds of a trading range forming. Next, the bulls need to get closes above the moving average as a sign of increased buying pressure.

Yesterday’s Emini setups

SP500 Emini 5-Min Chart Bear Trap Then Buy Climax and Wedge Top

Al created the SP500 Emini charts.

Here are reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. I show each buy entry bar with a green arrow and each sell entry bar with a red arrow. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a near 4-year library of more detailed explanations of swing trade setups (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups). Encyclopedia members get current daily charts added to Encyclopedia.

My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.

It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.

If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro Emini.

Summary of today’s S&P Emini price action

Al created the SP500 Emini charts.

Emini end of day video review

Periodic end of day review videos will be moved to top of page when done.

EURUSD Forex market analysis

EURUSD Forex daily chart

  • The EURUSD reached the daily moving average during the early morning hours.
  • The market has been away from the moving average for over 20 bars. This means the bears have been forced to sell below the moving average for several bars. Since a moving average is a reflection of the fair price, traders are now getting to sell at an average price. This means that traders will likely use this opportunity to sell.
  • While bears are selling at the moving average, traders do not know if they are willing to hold for a swing or if they will scalp out.
  • The bears need a strong bear reversal bar today to convince traders that the market is going lower. Otherwise, there might be more buyers below.
  • Overall, the odds are the market will probably go sideways here for some time. This means the market may have to pull back for a couple of legs.

See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.

Trading Room

Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed Emini price action real-time each day in the BrooksPriceAction.com trading room days. We offer a 2 day free trial.

Charts use Pacific Time

When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.

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