Market Video Overview: FTSE 100 Futures
Tim Fairweather’s weekly report on the FTSE 100 futures market.
FTSE 100 report transcript
Hi everyone. And welcome back to another weekend report. My name’s Tim Fairweather, and today we’re going to cover the FTSE 100. So let’s go.
So today we’re looking at the FTSE 100 monthly chart. You can see so far we’ve got a very small bear bar and it’s closing right up near the high, so a little bit confusing.
It’s a tight trading range and we’ve only got one more day of the month left on Monday, so I think it’s going to stay as an inside bar. And you can see we’ve had a very interesting breakout mode pattern. We’ve had an inside bar, an outside bar, Another outside bar and now an inside bar. So we’re starting to go sideways and it makes sense but because we’ve had three legs up in a bull channel one two three to a new all time high and traders are wondering whether buying above bull bars up here is still a good idea.
So is last month or is this month a good signal bar for next month? Well it’s an inside bar which is a pause And traders generally wait for more information. The bulls had a buy signal bar here. You’ve got to break out to a new high, a pullback, and then a high one by what happened on their entry bar or didn’t really go above where they got in.
And I suspect. Because we’re still around that price, it’s not going to be too long before those bulls give up. So they really need something to happen next month to give them some profits to get a new high. Otherwise they’re going to exit. Some bulls also bought in the micro gaps and the gaps below, below the low of that prior bull bar or this prior bull bar.
It was above the moving average. And we said in a previous report, or we wrote in a previous report that buying a breakout point here was a really good trade. And it turned out to be. If you’re a bear, what do you see? Well, you’ve got a bear inside bar and you’ve got another bear inside bar. And so you don’t really have a lot of cell signals.
Some traders will see if this triggers below, but do you really want to sell below a bear bar that’s closing on a tie? No, that’s probably not a great trade. If anything, the best the bears are going to get is to get back to the moving average. So it’s not a great buy above. It’s not a great sell below. So we might still need to go sideways.
For the bears, they’ve been selling above prior highs, and this has been a good trade for them. Selling above bear bars and scaling in, and they’re getting back to where their original entry points are. And that’s a sign we’re in a channel, and if traders buy high, they’ll have more of their position below to scale in.
Now that there’s a tail on the bar here, I suspect there’s going to be even more sellers above the high, betting that they’ll be able to scalp back. We’re still always in long, so traders should be long or flat. But it looks like traders are starting to enter and trade it more like a channel as opposed to what looked like a really strong breakout.
So next month I’m expecting sideways to up, but the balls really need to go above that bar, I think early in the month. Otherwise we might just drift back down to the moving average. On the FTSE 100 weekly chart, we had a smallish bull bar, but closing on its high and closing above the moving average.
This is a good bull signal, particularly in a bull trend, we’re above this moving average, we’re above the 200 moving average, so we’re definitely in a bull channel. The only problem they have is that we’re in a tight trading range. So we had bull bars up here. Traders bought, they had to buy lower the moving average, another bull bar by back to the entry, another bull bar, probably going to treat it again.
So we’re working our way up in a channel for the bears. They saw the parabolic wedge and two legs sideways to down and they see this as some kind of a wedge top. One, two, three, or maybe one, two, and then they’ll be looking for a wedge bottom to a double top, what we call a dueling lines pattern, looking for a sell down.
Is this a good signal bar for next week? Yeah, it’s a good bull signal bar. The bears triggered a cell below that bar, and now it started to reverse. So if we go strongly above this bar, these traders have an option to either scale in or exit, and we could get a big breakout to a new high. I said several weeks ago, the traders that were buying the clothes and buying above bars, and that the traders bought above this bar here, and we never quite got back to their entry.
Now, some would have exited, What I said was that some of those traders would exit. If that’s your entry bar, you’re far away from the moving average. You might just get out and try and buy lower. He’s a high one. He’s a high two. There’s a couple of options to buy later, but I think we’re going to go back up and test this price because the bears have not been able to get anything below the moving average.
So we’re technically still always in long. The stop never got run here and bulls are more likely to get a new high stops, move up, and then the swing continues. Bears have had a couple of chances to sell below these bear bars. They had. I collapsed back to the moving average, but no follow through. And you can see that little arrow I’ve got there.
I know it’s probably hard to see on your screen, but I have that. And that tells me that less than 5 percent of the bar is below the open. That’s a sign of urgency. The moment that bar closed, traders bought it. And I think that’s because traders were wondering whether this was going to go down further.
This stop entry triggered reverse. They had to scale in. So bears were no longer selling here. Bears were buying back their shorts. So I think we’re going to run the stops on these bears as well as these ones. So always in long on the monthly and always in long on the weekly chart. So sideways to up expected, we’ve got a signal bar on the weekly chart.
So I think we’ll be hovering around there and the moving average and continuing this type training range, looking for breakout. Thanks very much for watching. My name’s Tim Fairweather and I’ll see you next week.
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