Market Overview: FTSE 100 Futures
FTSE 100 futures closed higher last week setting up a High 2 at the moving average in a bull trend. With a strong bull breakout on the monthly, we expected this tight trading range to make way for continuation, and it looks like it for next week. It’s best to be out of shorts, at least.
FTSE 100 Futures
The Weekly FTSE chart
- The FTSE 100 futures went higher last week setting up a High 2 at the moving average in a bull trend.
- HTF is a spike and channel with a bear doji, so a pause with traders expecting more up.
- After the spike, the bears got their 1:1 from the sell below the surprise bar.
- But bulls were going to take profits there at a measured move and 2:1 swing target from the earlier buy signal.
- Bears needed to close the breakout gap (BOG), which they missed by less than 10 points.
- With a gap open, despite being small, limit bears would have struggled to make money.
- Most bears will exit above this buy signal bar for next week.
- It’s a high-probability setup, so at least a 1:1 back to test the H1 that trapped bulls up there.
- Monday might give you a pullback for the swing entry a 2:1, as bears exit.
- The pain trade? An outside down bar next week trapping bulls and running skunk stops below the bar. Low probability.
- It’s a big signal bar, so some traders don’t want to risk that much.
- There is a tight trading range, so stop entries are lower probability, but context is good, at least to cover shorts.
- Always in long above this bar. For me it never went always in short, it was only a trading range which I had been talking about for several weeks.
- It’s better to be long or flat; I expect higher prices next week.
The Daily FTSE chart
- The FTSE 100 futures went higher on Friday with a strong bull trend bar closing on its high. We might gap up on Monday.
- Breakout mode for many weeks and a failed breakout below, turning into a swing buy. A common way for BOM to end.
- If you buy here, the stop is wide, so the probability is good.
- The bear stop is, at best, 8300, so we are going to run that next week. The question will be whether you scale in as a bear. I wouldn’t.
- Always in long, so it’s better to be long or flat. Expecting more up next week.
- The bears had chances to run the bulls’ stops, but I don’t think swing bulls had their stop at the breakout point, which is usually a bad place for a stop.
- I think they took profits after such an incredible run-up and exited at the second-entry short down and never got back in.
- That is why we couldn’t plunge down; no one was trapped high.
- However, limit order bears needed to scale in and took some swing entries down, so when their spike and channel ended, no more sellers were interested.
- Bulls were buying new lows all the way down, wide stop, confident they would get out breakeven at worst.
- One sign was the fast pullback the bears had to endure on the way down. That spike scared them from holding.
- When in doubt, assume trading range and scalp, so some bulls might scalp until the follow-through itself has followthrough.
Market analysis reports archive
You can access all weekend reports on the Market Analysis page.
