Market Overview: NASDAQ 100 Emini Futures
The NASDAQ Emini futures June monthly candlestick is a big bull trend bar with small tails and a body proportionate with the May monthly bar. This is the best pair of bull bars since July 2020 when the market broke to new highs post-pandemic.
The week closed as an outside up bull bar. As was mentioned in last week’s report, the sell signal bar was likely to be triggered. The market triggered the sell signal and then closed slightly above the prior week high.
At the half-way point, the year so far is a big bull inside bar almost near the all-time high (ATH) close of 2021. See more below in the Monthly section.
NASDAQ 100 Emini futures
The Monthly NASDAQ chart
- The June month bar is a bull bar as close in appearance to May – a non-climactic body, small tails.
- The bulls needed June as a good follow-through bar to May to confirm the breakout above the August 2022 high.
- The bulls did that with the June monthly bar.
- The market also closed above the March 2022 swing high.
- As mentioned in last month’s report, bears that may have sold the August high were trapped with May close being far above the August high.
- Bears may have scaled in at May close/high expecting a pullback and exiting break-even.
- Since there was no pullback, those sellers are trapped as well.
- If the market pulls back, it will likely find buyers between the May close/high and August 2022 high.
- In other words, that area should act as temporary support.
- Since there are two bull closes above the August high confirming a breakout above the August high, bears that sold the August high will likely exit.
- There should be two more legs up from this spike.
- Back in January, the report had shown a target of 14673.5 based on 2x the risk of buying below the September bar based on the range of the bar. The 2x target was based on a 40% probability of success. This target was met in June.
- June has essentially also closed the bear body gap of February 2022.
- The bear body gap was created when April and May 2022 broke below the bear body of February 2022, and there had not been a bull close until May 2023 that overlaps with the body of February 2022.
- The chart above also shows the Yearly chart (inset) – 2021 was a bull trend bar, hence a bad sell signal bar. 2022 went below the 2021 low and found buyers.
- 2023 so far is an inside bar. The question is – Will there be sellers above the 2022 high?
- The next targets for the bulls are –
- The all-time high close of Dec 2021 – 16338.75
- The all-time high in November 2021 at 16767.5
- The Measured Move (MM) based on high of August 2022 and low of October 2022 – at 16996.75 which would be a new all-time high.
- The MM based on the bodies of May and June 2023 – at 17342
The Weekly NASDAQ chart
- This week is an outside-up bull bar – a bull bar whose low is below last week’s low and high above last week’s high.
- Even though the week was an outside up bull bar, it went below last week’s low by more than it went above last week’s high – this usually results in sellers above this week to allow the trapped sellers to exit.
- This week tested the breakout point of the March 2022 close and reversed up
- The market is breaking out above the channel shown on the chart.
- Usually, such breakouts return to the channel within the next 5-6 bars.
- As mentioned before, bears have not done much yet.
- There have been no consecutive bear bars since December of 2022.
- There has not been a close below a prior bar since early March.
- At the same time, bulls are creating breakout gaps by going above the August 2022 high.
- Bulls have also created body gaps with August 2022 high close and now March 2022 high close (shown as body gap in green on the chart above).
- The first bear target is to close the March 2022 body gap.
- The next target for the bulls is:
- the low of week of 12/20/21 at 15492 because it was a big bull bar at the weekly exponential moving average (EMA) and a reasonable buy.
- the bear body gap of the week of 11/29/2021 at 15686.5. This gap was created when the week of 1/3/2022 and 1/10/2022 had a close below the 11/29/2021 close and there has been no bull bar overlapping with the bear body of 11/29/2021.
Market analysis reports archive
You can access all weekend reports on the Market Analysis page.
