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Weekly EURUSD Follow-through

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Market Overview: EURUSD Forex

The market formed a weekly EURUSD follow-through bull bar breaking above the December high. The bulls want a strong retest of the July high and a strong breakout with follow-through buying. The problem with the bear’s case is that the move up since the June low is strong with limited selling pressure.

EURUSD Forex market

The Weekly EURUSD chart

EURUSD Weekly: Breakout above December High, Weekly EURUSD Follow-through
  • This week’s candlestick on the weekly EURUSD Forex chart was a big bull bar closing near its high.
  • Last week, we said that the odds slightly favor the market to trade at least a little higher. Traders will see if the bulls can create a follow-through bull bar or if the market would trade slightly higher, but stall followed by a pullback into the triangle.
  • The bulls got a strong follow-through bull bar closing above the December 28 high.
  • The buying pressure since the June low is stronger with consecutive bull bars than weaker bear bars with no follow-through selling.
  • Next, they want a strong retest of the July high and a strong breakout with follow-through buying.
  • The bears see this week as a buy vacuum test of the trading range high (July high).
  • They want a reversal from around the upper third of the large trading range.
  • The problem with the bear’s case is that the move up since the June low is strong with limited selling pressure.
  • They must create strong consecutive bear bars to show they are back in control.
  • Since this week’s candlestick is a bull bar closing near its high, it is a buy signal bar for next week.
  • Odds slightly favor the market to trade at least a little higher.
  • Traders will see if the bulls can create another follow-through bull bar testing the July high.
  • Or will the market trade slightly higher but stall and close with a long tail or a bear body?
  • The market trades around the upper third of the large trading range which can be the sell zone of trading range traders.
  • The EURUSD is in a 92-week trading range. (Trading range high: July 2023, Trading range low: Oct 2023). 
  • Traders will continue to BLSH (Buy Low, Sell High) within a trading range until a breakout with follow-through selling/buying.
  • Poor follow-through and reversals are hallmarks of a trading range.

The Daily EURUSD chart

EURUSD Daily: Strong Bull Leg Retest December High
  • The EURUSD traded sideways to up for the week. Thursday’s candlestick was a pullback but lacked follow-through selling. Friday’s candlestick was a big bull bar closing near its high.
  • Last week, we said that the odds slightly favor the market to still be in the sideways to up phase. Traders will see if the bulls can create a strong retest of the August 14 high with follow-through buying. If they do, it will increase the odds of retesting the trading range high (Dec 28).
  • The bulls got a retest and breakout above the December 28 high.
  • The move is in a tight bull channel with strong consecutive bull bars and bear bars with limited follow-through selling. That means strong bulls.
  • Next, they want a strong retest of the July high and a breakout with follow-through buying.
  • If the market trades lower, the bulls want the 20-day EMA to act as support.
  • The bears see the current move as a buy vacuum test of the trading range high.
  • They want a reversal from a parabolic wedge (Aug 5, Aug 14, and Aug 23) and a failed breakout above the December high.
  • They want a reversal from around the upper third of the large trading range.
  • The problem with the bear’s case is that the buying pressure is stronger (consecutive bull bars) than the weaker selling pressure (bear bars with no follow-through selling).
  • They must create consecutive bear bars trading near their lows and trading far below the 20-day EMA to show that they are back in control.
  • So far, the move up since the August 1 low is strong in a tight bull channel.
  • Odds slightly favor the market to still be in the sideways to up phase.
  • If there is a pullback, traders expect at least a small sideways to up leg to retest the current leg extreme high (now Aug 23).
  • For now, traders will see if the bulls can create a retest of the July high or if the market will trade slightly higher but stall and form a minor pullback.
  • The market is trading near the upper third of the large trading range which can be the sell zone of trading range traders.
  • Traders will continue to BLSH (Buy Low, Sell High) within a trading range until a breakout with follow-through selling/buying.
  • Poor follow-through and reversals are hallmarks of a trading range.

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