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Weekly Crude Oil Lower High

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Market Overview: Crude Oil Futures

The market formed a weekly Crude Oil lower high. The bears must create a strong entry bar to increase the odds of retesting the August 5 low and the triangle bottom. The bulls hope that this week was simply a pullback and want at last a small retest of the August 12 high.

Crude oil futures

The Weekly crude oil chart

Crude Oil Weekly: Middle of TR, Lower High, Weekly Crude Oil Lower High
  • This week’s candlestick on the weekly Crude Oil chart was a bear doji closing in its lower half below the 20-week EMA.
  • Last week, we said the market may trade at least a little higher. Traders will see if the bulls can create a strong entry bar trading above the 20-week EMA or if the market would trade slightly higher but stall around the 20-week EMA area.
  • The market traded higher early in the week but lacked follow-through buying. The market reversed to close below last week’s high.
  • Previously, the bears created a reversal from a lower high major trend reversal, a double top bear flag (Apr 12 and Jul 5) and from around the top of the large triangle pattern.
  • They created a tight bear channel (Aug 5) which means persistent selling.
  • They see the last two weeks simply as a pullback.
  • They want at least a small second leg sideways to down to retest the recent leg low (Aug 5).
  • The bears must create a strong entry bar to increase the odds of retesting the August 5 low and the triangle bottom.
  • The bulls see the move to the August 5 low simply as a pullback and got a reversal from a double bottom bull flag (Jun 4 and Aug 5) and a higher low.
  • They want a retest of the recent high (July 5).
  • The market traded higher this week, but it formed a lower high and lacked follow-through buying. The bulls are not yet as strong as they hoped to be.
  • They hope that this week was simply a pullback and want at last a small retest of the August 12 high.
  • Since this week’s candlestick is a bear doji trading around the middle of the trading range, it is a neutral signal for next week.
  • The market is trading around the middle of the large trading range which is an area of balance.
  • Traders will see if the bears can create a strong entry bar.
  • Or will the market retest the August 12 high instead?
  • The market is in a large trading range (Trading range high: September 29, Trading range low: May 4).
  • Traders will BLSH (Buy Low, Sell High) until there is a breakout from either direction with sustained follow-through buying/selling.
  • Poor follow-through and reversals are hallmarks of a trading range.
  • Side note: The ongoing turmoil in the Middle East can cause volatility in energy prices.

The Daily crude oil chart

Crude Oil Daily: Middle of TR, Lower High
  • The market traded higher early in the week testing the August 1 high but lacked follow-through buying. Crude Oil traded sideways to down for the rest of the week closing below the 20-day EMA.
  • Last week, we said that traders would see if the bulls can continue to create follow-through buying or would the market trade slightly higher but stall around the bear trend line area or the August 1 high area.
  • The bulls see the move to the August 5 low simply as a deep pullback testing the June 4 low and the bottom of the triangle.
  • They got a reversal from a double bottom bull flag (Jun 4 and Aug 5) and a parabolic wedge (Jul 23, Jul 30, and Aug 5).
  • They hope to get a retest of the July 5 high followed by a breakout above the triangle pattern with follow-through buying.
  • They see this week as a pullback and want at least a small retest of the August 12 high.
  • Previously, the bear got a strong retest of the June 4 low.
  • They see the move higher in the last 2 weeks simply as a pullback.
  • They want the bear trend line or the 20-day EMA to act as resistance.
  • They want a retest of the August 5 low from a double top bear flag (Aug 1 and Aug 12) and a lower high.
  • If the market trades higher, they want a double top with the August 12 high.
  • So far, the market continues to trade around the middle of the trading range which is an area of balance and a magnet.
  • Traders will see if the bulls can create a small sideways to up leg to retest the August 12 high.
  • Or will the market continue to stall and form a strong bear leg to retest the August 5 low?
  • Poor follow-through and reversals are hallmarks of a trading range.
  • Side note: The ongoing turmoil in the Middle East can cause volatility in energy prices.

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