Market Overview: NASDAQ 100 Emini Futures
The NASDAQ Emini futures August month candlestick is a bad H1 buy signal bar at EMA – exponential moving average. It is a big doji bar with essentially no body and a long tail below.
The week is a bear doji bar with a tail below. It pulled back below last week and is reversing from the weekly EMA.
July and August are really big bars. They are almost double in size compared to bars earlier in the year.
The quarterly bar is a really big outside doji bar because it’s range is from the July high to the August low, and the market is currently around the midpoint. Given the size of the quarterly bar, it is likely that the September month will stay within the range of the current quarter, or at least not breakout beyond it.
This outside bar is unusual in that it represents a leg down from the high of the quarter to just below the prior quarter and is currently on a leg up. Outside bars need follow-through bars to continue, and still usually reverse within two bars.
Assuming this quarter ends in the upper half of the bar, what happens next quarter?
If October month is a bear reversal bar near the top of the current quarterly bar, it may signify a reversal. If instead October is a bull bar, then we wait to see if November is a bear bar. Earlier reports have mentioned how this year will likely not be a good entry bar on the yearly chart which would mean at least a tail on the top given this year is already a bull bar. Given this, it is more likely at least two of the three months next quarter are a doji bar or a bear bar.
Instead if this quarter ends in the bottom half of the bar, then bulls will try for a reversal bar around the bottom of the current quarterly outside bar.
The other way to describe the above is an expanding triangle (ET), where the market goes above the July high and reverses and goes below the August low and reverses till there is a breakout.
NASDAQ 100 Emini futures
The Monthly NASDAQ chart
- The August month bar is a doji bar with big tail below.
- At one point in the month, the bar was a big bear bar. It almost touched the monthly EMA and reversed.
- The tails on the July and August months represents trading range – There are likely sellers above and buyers below.
- The body gap with the 2021 high close is still open. The market went below it and reversed.
- If the market is transitioning to a trading range, then that body gap should close.
- So, what’s possible in the next few months – The market could go up for a couple of bars but will likely find sellers. Given last month was a bad sell signal bar, it is possible the market will go up to at least the top half of the upper tail.
- Or the market could go down for a month or two, close the body gap, form a better buy signal at the monthly EMA and find buyers.
The Weekly NASDAQ chart
- The week is a bear doji bar with a tail reversing from the weekly EMA.
- It is a pullback in the bull leg up of the last three weeks, and a buy signal bar for the next leg up. Given that this week is a bear bar, it is not a good buy signal bar.
- As mentioned last week, the monthly bar had already been so big that it was unlikely for this week to be another bull trend bar. It was more likely to be a doji bar or bear bar. This week met that expectation.
- A bear that sold the close of the bull reversal bar of 8/5 and sold the close of the small bull bar last week was able to exit breakeven at the weekly EMA this week.
- Bears will aim for double-top around the July high close.
- Bulls want to get a couple of strong bull closes above the July high close, so they can signal that a new bull leg is starting.
Market analysis reports archive
You can access all weekend reports on the Market Analysis page.
