Market Overview: FTSE 100 Futures
FTSE 100 futures went sideways last month with a bear inside bar high. The pullback hasn’t appeared on this time frame yet, so it’s still always in long, and the first reversal is likely to be minor. Weekly bears are trying to close gaps below, but its more likely profit-taking and then more up.
FTSE 100 Futures
The Monthly FTSE chart
- The FTSE 100 futures went sideways last month with a bear inside bar.
- It’s a pause in a tight channel and a bull breakout to a new ATH.
- The bulls see a bull microchannel, a breakout and FT, with open gaps above the breakout point.
- Bull microchannel, so buyers are below. Expecting more up, traders will buy below the lows of the strong bull bars.
- It looks like we have completed the second leg, so we might go sideways for a month or two before the last leg up.
- The first leg was the breakout and pullback from the bull flag. The March leg was strongest, coming out of a trading range and breaking out of breakout mode.
- The bears see May had a big tail on it. Some computers will see it as a bear bar because it closed below its midpoint.
- But it is a weak Low 1 sell below it. But now, with an inside bar, some limit order bears might look to scale in selling below and higher.
- Most traders should be long or flat, as we are always in long in a bull trend.
- Stop-entry traders who entered above April are having their entries tested. They want one more bar or one more leg.
- But the bears have not triggered below a bear bar since May 2023. So, buyers are more likely to be below and scaling in lower.
- The counterargument is that we have reached a reasonable 2:1 swing target area for bulls, so there is profit-taking. Some bulls want to buy lower, closer to the moving average.
- The market went always in long, and has no pullbacks yet. This month is returning to that point, so it is a credible buy for one more bar.
- Monday is the start of the month, quarter, or half-year, so it could be very aggressive for buyers or sellers.
- Expect sideways to up next week.
The Weekly FTSE chart
- The FTSE 100 futures went down last week with a sell signal bar closing on its low.
- It’s an interesting price action. The bulls had a parabolic wedge top and a big-small-big pattern, so traders expected 2 legs sideways to down.
- We finished the second leg, and we are starting to go sideways with three weeks of very tight trading range.
- Traders wonder if it is breakout mode or the bears will get another leg down.
- It’s not a high-probability buy because the bull who bought above last week is stuck.
- But the bears who sold the close the week before are also stuck.
- The bears want to get down to the moving average and close the breakout gap to put the market back into a trading range.
- The bulls had an issue with such a strong breakout, there was no where for swing bulls to move their stop up to.
- Bears might want to test the bad sell signal bar from April that the breakout came from. A failed attempt at a double top.
- I think swing bears are still in, so they need a reason to exit.
- Swing bulls are out – 5 bear bars.
- We said last week after 5 bear bars and pause, the bears should get a second leg and they did – one bar.
- It’s a weak limit buy below that bar, so the best choice is to stay flat, or bears can stay long.
Market analysis reports archive
You can access all weekend reports on the Market Analysis page.
