Trading Update: Friday March 8, 2024
S&P Emini pre-open market analysis
Emini daily chart
- The Emini gapped up yesterday, closing above the high of March 4th, and is getting near the 5,200 round number.
- The daily chart is still in a bull channel forming open gaps. This increases the odds of trend resumption or sideways to up.
- The bears need to begin to get closes below the moving average. Without it, the best the bears can expect is a trading range.
- Even if the bears can get closes below the moving average, the odds will favor a trading range and not a bear trend.
- The market is approaching 5,200, and it may have to reach it before it pulls back.
- Overall, traders should assume that the odds will favor sideways to up until the bears are able to create more selling pressure.
Emini Intra Day Update
- The open rallied, forming a bull trend from the open bull trend. As of bar 12, the market is Always Long, and the odds favor a bull trend or a trading range, and not a bear trend.
- The bears need to create more selling pressure if they are going to take control of the market.
- Even if the bears can create more selling pressure, the odds will favor sideways around the moving average.
- The rally to bar 12 is strong enough for a second leg up.
- The bears will need to try to form a major trend reversal before they have a realistic chance of getting a reversal.
- The market may begin to go sideways for several hours and decide on trend resumption or trend reversal later in the day.
- As of bar 16, the odds still favor at least a small 2nd leg above the bar 8 high.
Yesterday’s Emini setups
Al created the SP500 Emini charts.
Here are reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. I show each buy entry bar with a green arrow and each sell entry bar with a red arrow. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a near 4-year library of more detailed explanations of swing trade setups (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups). Encyclopedia members get current daily charts added to Encyclopedia.
My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.
It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.
If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro Emini.
EURUSD Forex market trading strategies
EURUSD Forex daily chart
- The EURUSD is getting a bull breakout of a bear flag. Yesterday’s breakout increases the odds of a second leg up and test of the January 11th top of the bear channel.
Summary of today’s S&P Emini price action
Al created the SP500 Emini charts.
See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.
Trading Room
Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed Emini price action real-time each day in the BrooksPriceAction.com trading room days. We offer a 2 day free trial.
Charts use Pacific Time
When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.
My question for Friday’s price action would be why no long above bar 36? We have a few wedges/ nest wedges there, testing the 60 min 20 EMA, with a small db as well. I can see the case against the bulls as I am sure most traders would like to see a bar put above the moving average at least with that decent sized bear leg from bar 8 to bar 33. Also this is right at the face of the 20EMA on the 5 minute chart.
But does it not seem reasonable that above bar 36 at least had a 40 percent of being a reversal? If not why? Thanks in advance for the feedback!
In my view buying above bar 36 was buying at the high of the channel or just below the high of the trading range (depending on how you use channel lines) that developed after the breakout. Never a good idea to buy the high of a range.
I would prefer more evidence before going long. As you mentioned a breakout above the EMA might have changed my mind.
I went short below bar 39, the second failed attempt to go higher.
Bar 19 – case for Bull, 50% PB, Breakout Point #3
What would make it 60% probability for Bear? the failed W at EMA Bar #17?
I shorted below #19 for a scalp though hesitated and was thinking it might bounce here ..
Bar 19 was a bear surprise bar. It was the largest bar of the day thus far. It also ripped through and closed below the MA. Also this bar took out some stops below bar 16 for those who went long above bar 17 (H3 Wedge). This bear bar also represents the H3 Wedge bull flag failing. After bar 19 I expected a second leg down and then seeing bar 20 I expected the leg to be at least as big as the bodies of these two candles (we got much more than that). I unfortunately also exited too early in my opinion right above bar 26. I hope this helps.