Trading Update: Friday October 25, 2024
Emini end of day video review
Follow Joseph’s YouTube channel for more Al Brooks price action analysis.
S&P Emini market analysis
Emini daily chart
- The Emini sold off to the moving average on the daily chart. The bulls are hopeful that the moving average will act as support and lead to a rally
- Wednesday’s downside breakout failed to close on its low, a sigh of profit-taking at support, the moving average.
- The Bulls tried to get a reversal bar yesterday closing above the open but failed to do so. This lowers the probability of buyers above yesterday’s high.
- The bears have formed a 6-bar bear microchannel, which increases the odds of sellers above and a second leg down.
- The problem the bears have is that they are selling at support, the moving average. This increases the odds of a reversal up.
- The 6,000 big round number is a logical magnet for the market to test. The market is so close to the round number that many traders do not want to sell far from the magnet.
- The bears want a reversal down and a breakout below the moving average.
- So far, the bears have done a great job of making the market go sideways and increasing the selling pressure. Next, the bears need to get a series of strong bear closes, ideally below the moving average.
Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today
- The Globex market rallied early morning, forming a tight bull channel on the 15-minute chart.
- The market is going to gap up on the open. This increases the odds of the bulls getting a second leg up.
- Most traders should wait 6-12 bars before placing a trade. This is because there is an 80% chance of a trading range open and only a 20% chance of a trend from the open.
- Trading ranges are always a double top/bottom or a wedge top/bottom formation. This means that the open has an 80% chance of forming one of the above-mentioned patterns, which means a trader can wait for one of the above patterns to form before placing a swing trade.
- Today is Friday, so weekly support and resistance are important.
- The midpoint of the week is at 5,854.75, and last week’s low is at 5,850. Both of these are likely to act as magnets today. This means traders should pay attention to them as the market may close near one of the above magnets.
Yesterday’s Emini setups
Al created the SP500 Emini charts.
Summary of today’s S&P Emini price action
Al created the SP500 Emini charts.
EURUSD Forex market analysis
EURUSD Forex daily chart
- Note, going forward the EURUSD will be released during the pre-market hours and not after U.S. Session close.
- The EURUSD is forming a parabolic wedge bottom at the August Low.
- Today, a strong bull reversal bar was formed, closing on its high. It is reasonable for bears to exit above and wait to see what the pullback looks like.
- The bulls hope this is the start of a strong reversal up. The odds favor a minor reversal up, which means a trading range or bear flag.
- There are probably sellers near the moving average, depending on the test of the moving average.
- The bulls have an opportunity to trap the bears and get a strong follow-through bar tomorrow. This would increase the odds of higher prices.
- Even if Friday is a bear reversal bar, buyers will probably be below.
- Overall, it is reasonable for swing bears to exit above Thursday’s high and look to sell again after a couple of legs sideways to up.
See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.
Trading Room
Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed Emini price action real-time each day in the BrooksPriceAction.com trading room days. We offer a 2 day free trial.
Charts use Pacific Time
When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.