Trading Update: Tuesday August 15, 2023
S&P Emini pre-open market analysis
Emini daily chart
- The Emini closed with a strong bull follow-through bar on the daily chart. This increases the odds of a second leg up and more sideways trading on the daily chart.
- The market is testing the apex of the June triangle. The bears are hopeful that the July rally was a final flag. Next, the bears will try for
- The bears have had several attempts to form a strong downside breakout. However, the bulls continued to buy below bars with limit orders successfully.
- When limit order bulls begin to buy below bars, it increases the odds that stop order bulls will begin to make money, and the market will transition into a trading range.
- The bulls hope to continue the follow-through buying today and get another strong bull close.
- The bears are hopeful that today will have bad follow-through buying and form a doji or a bear trend bar.
- Overall, the bulls are hopeful that yesterday’s bull trend bar is enough for a second leg up. Even if the Bulls get a second leg, the upside will probably be limited.
Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today
- The Globex market found sellers late last night, and at the time of writing this (6:45 EST AM), they are trying to get a second leg down.
- More likely, any selloff will become a bear leg in a trading range.
- Traders should expect the open to have a lot of trading range price action and consider not trading for the first 6-12 bar.
- The open often forms a breakout mode pattern and goes sideways for the first hour. This means that on most days there is no rush to trade the open unless one can trade with limit orders and make quick decisions.
- Traders should pay close attention to the open of the day and last Friday’s buy signal bar high, as both will probably be magnets today.
- Traders should try catching the opening swing, which often forms after a double top/bottom or a wedge top/bottom. The opening swing usually begins before the end of the second hour and has at least a 40% chance of doubling the opening range.
- This allows a trader to look for a stop entry based on the abovementioned patterns and enter for a swing trade.
Yesterday’s Emini setups
Al created the SP500 Emini charts.
Here are several reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. I show each buy entry with a green rectangle and each sell entry with a red rectangle. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a near 4-year library of more detailed explanations of swing trade setups (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups). Encyclopedia members get current daily charts added to Encyclopedia.
My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.
It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.
If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro Emini.
EURUSD Forex market trading strategies
EURUSD Forex daily chart
- The EURUSD formed a downside breakout yesterday and went below the July 6th buy signal bar high.
- Because the market was in a trading range, the odds favored the July 6th breakout point (gap) closing, allowing the bears to make money.
- The bears failed to close yesterday’s bar on its low. This is a sign that the market is still in a trading range and not a bear trend, which means there will probably be a rally lasting at least two legs soon. However, the rally will probably be in a trading range as well.
- The bulls want a strong reversal bar today to convince the bears to exit above a bull bar.
- The daily chart has formed decent bull bars over the past ten days, increasing the odds of more sideways trading soon.
Summary of today’s S&P Emini price action
Al created the SP500 Emini charts.
End of day video review
Today’s End Of Day review will be presented in the Trading Room and only available to the trading room subscribers.
See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.
Trading Room
Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed Emini price action real-time each day in the BrooksPriceAction.com trading room days. We offer a 2 day free trial.
Charts use Pacific Time
When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.
Looks like today is trying to setup a failed H4 on the daily chart.