Brooks Trading Course

Learn to Trade Price Action Consistently

 

More results...

Emini Bears Want Reversal Bar Today

By

Trading Update: Friday June 28, 2024

S&P Emini pre-open market analysis

Emini daily chart

  • The Emini formed another bull bar yesterday but failed to close above Wednesday’s high. This is a sign that the Bulls are getting weaker and that the market will probably go sideways to down. The Bears are hopeful that they can get a reversal bar today, closing on its low.
  • The bulls are losing momentum far above the moving average. This increases the odds that the market will reach the moving average soon.
  • Today will probably disappoint the bulls and close as a bear bar.
  • The bears are hopeful that they will be able to form a strong reversal down today, which will lead to a test of the moving average.
  • The Juen rally is tight, meaning the odds favor a trading range, not a bear trend.
  • The bears have halted the buying, which is good; however, they need to do more. Ideally, the bears need consecutive bear bars closing on their lows. That would increase the odds of a second leg down.
  • Since the market is far from the moving average, there will probably be a buyer on the test of it.
  • Overall, the daily chart will probably continue to go sideways and eventually test down to the March high and the May 31st low. However, this could take several months to happen.

Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today

  • Emini is up 12 points in the overnight Globex session.
  • The Globex market has been in a tight bull channel (15-minute chart) for most of the session.
  • The bears recently formed a downside breakout during the 8:30 AM EST report.
  • The bears will see the 15-minute Globex chart as a bull channel that should evolve into a trading range. This means the odds favor the bear breakout, getting the second leg down.
  • The bears are hopeful that today will form a strong bear trend day, leading to a bear reversal bar on the daily chart.
  • The bulls want to prevent today from becoming a bear trend day.
  • While the bears have a chance of a bear trend during the U.S. Session, the odds favor a trading range open.
  • This means traders should be prepared for the market to go sideways on the open. There is only a 20% chance of a trend from the open and an 80% chance of a trading range open.
  • Most traders should wait for 6-12 bars before placing a trade. This will increase their odds of catching either the high or low of the day. It will also reduce the risk of a trader getting trapped in a failed breakout.
  • It is common for the opening range to expand and then contract during the middle of the range. This increase in volatility on the open can cause traders to face a big loss on the open. If the range contracts during the middle of the day, it can make it difficult to make the loss up.
  • Today is Friday, so weekly support and resistance are important. Traders should be prepared for a possible surprise breakout late in the day as traders decide to close the weekly chart.
  • The midpoint of the week is 5,534.25, which is a magnet for the market to try and test today.
  • Overall, traders should be patient on the open and wait for clarity. It is common or the open to have several reversals before a successful swing trade begins.

Yesterday’s Emini setups

SP500 Emini 5-Minute HH Double Top Then Trading Range

Al created the SP500 Emini charts.

Here are reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. I show each buy entry bar with a green arrow and each sell entry bar with a red arrow. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a near 4-year library of more detailed explanations of swing trade setups (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups). Encyclopedia members get current daily charts added to Encyclopedia.

My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.

It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.

If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro Emini.

EURUSD Forex market trading strategies

EURUSD Forex daily chart

  • The Daily chart is in a tight trading range, below the moving average.
  • The Bulls have had several opportunities to make money buying below bars. This increases the odds of bounce and a test of the moving average soon.
  • The problem that the bulls have is that the market has spent 11 trading days completely below the moving average on the daily chart. This is a sign of trending behavior.
  • The bears are likely not interested in selling below bars at this point unless the daily chart gets a surprise downside breakout.
  • Without a strong bear breakout or a series of bear closes, the bears will likely continue to buy back shorts and new lows, and bulls will buy for a reversal up.

Summary of today’s S&P Emini price action

SP500 Emini 5-Minute Buy Climax and Then Small Pullback Bear Trend

Al created the SP500 Emini charts.

End of day video review

End Of Day Review will be presented in the Trading Room today. See below for details on how to sign up.

See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.

Trading Room

Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed Emini price action real-time each day in the BrooksPriceAction.com trading room days. We offer a 2 day free trial.

Charts use Pacific Time

When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.

>