Market Overview: Bitcoin Futures
Bitcoin futures 7-week Bull Micro Channel at Measured Move. The price concluded another week with a low above the prior low, a 7-week streak. By the end of the upcoming week, there will also be the monthly close. Traders expect a test of $37000 during the week, which is the middle range of November, also the apex of a Bull or Final Flag on the Daily chart. Traders do not expect a strong bull close in November, that would be surprising and hence, the Bull Trend on the Daily Chart will likely continue its way.
Bitcoin futures
The Weekly chart of Bitcoin futures
Past: Support and Resistances
- The price started a Strong Bear Channel:
- Bear Flag’s Breakout Point (now rectangle’s Breakout Point).
- Major Lower High.
- Trading Range Apex (prior fair price).
- Then, failed a Breakout Below a Bear Flag and Reversed up, forming a HSB (Head and Shoulder Bottom) pattern, that broke up:
- 2022 Low.
- 2022s Major Higher Low.
- 2023 Major Higher Low.
- HSB Breakout Point
- HSB Measured Move around $35750 already reached.
- 50% Pull Back at around $42000, from all-time high to 2022 low.
- Lately, the price has been sideways creating a Double Top and a Double Bottom, which is a Trading Range, and because the Trading Range was not wide, was also a Rectangle and Breakout Mode Pattern.
- Trading Range High (Rectangle’s Breakout Point).
- Trading Range Low.
- Measured Move at $39500.
Present: Market Cycle
- The price is probably in a broad Trading Range instead of a strong bull trend, this is because on the left of the chart there were sellers and hence, exist sell zones.
Future: Inertia
- The price will likely reverse soon, maybe after reaching the $40000 area.
- Then, it will incite weak bears to sell by pulling back, but the first reversal down will likely be bought, even if it reaches the major higher low.
- If it keeps trading higher, might reach the 2022 high, but if this is a Trading Range, it will struggle to break up resistances like $40000 and $42000 (50% Pull Back from all-time high to 2022 low).
Trading
There are more sellers than buyers below this week’s low, if the price goes there, probably will test the Rectangle’s Breakout Point. Looking to buy below $30000 and sell above $40000 it remains the plan for most swing Traders.
- This week’s candlestick is not a good signal bar for bulls neither for bears.
- Bulls:
- For Bulls that bought during the Bull Breakout or with a Stop order above the pattern (call it Rectangle or Breakout Mode Pattern):
- Many will exit below this week’s low.
- Others want to keep the stop loss at the breakout’s low.
- Good risk management can be take partial profits and move the stop loss to the entry point, or below this week’s low.
- Bears:
- For now, they do not have any available setup (but selling with limit orders around $40000 targeting $24000 area, stop loss at 2022 high).
The Daily chart of Bitcoin futures
Past: Support and Resistances
- The price did a Bull Spike (Breakout) and Bull Channel.
- Breakout Points are now support.
- Bull Spike Low.
- Parabolic Wedge Top Low.
- 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).
- After a Wedge Top, the price did a couple of legs sideways to down.
- Wedge Top high.
- Bull Trend Line.
Present: Market Cycle
- The current Market Cycle is a Tight Bull Channel, you can also call it a Bull Spike and Channel.
Future: Inertia
- 80% of attempts to reverse a Tight Bull Channel are going to fail; moreover, the price should Trade higher towards resistances.
- If there will be a bear reversal, the price will likely transition into a Trading Range first, that means, going sideways for at least 20 days.
- Or the price might reverse after reaching the targets.
Trading
The past week, we have said that a higher high was likely since weak bears selling had their stop losses above previous higher high; moreover, we said that weak bulls wanted to buy higher highs, to not miss a super bull trend (despite strong resistances on a higher timeframe).
Furthermore, we have said that bulls buying were scalping, and hence, they are probably taking profits (weak bulls and bears giving liquidity to them). Scalping Bears are likely selling right now (they had limit orders above higher highs).
- Bulls:
- Swing Bulls are willing to buy a deep pullback, a failed bear breakout below the past week’s low.
- Bears:
- Swing bears should wait until there is a bear leg, or sideways trading for about 20 bars.
Market analysis reports archive
You can access all the weekend reports on the Market Analysis page.