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Weekly EURUSD Retesting August High

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Market Overview: EURUSD Forex

The market formed a weekly EURUSD retesting August High this week. The bulls need to create a follow-through bull bar breaking above the August 23 high to increase the odds of testing the July trading range high. The bears want a reversal from around the upper third of the large trading range from a double top bear flag (Dec 28 and Aug 23) and a small double top (Aug 23 and Sep 18).

EURUSD Forex market

The Weekly EURUSD chart

EURUSD Weekly: Double Top or Breakout & Test July High?, Weekly EURUSD Retesting August High
  • This week’s candlestick on the weekly EURUSD Forex chart was a bull bar with a small tail above.
  • Last week, we said if the market continues to stall above the 20-week EMA, we may see an attempt to retest the August 23 high in the coming weeks. Traders would see if the bull can create a strong entry bar closing near its high or if the market would trade slightly higher but stall and close with a long tail or a bear body instead.
  • The bulls managed to create a retest of the August 23 high and a strong entry bar.
  • They see the recent move (to Sep 11) as a two-legged pullback and want a resumption of the bull leg.
  • They want a retest of the August 23 high and a breakout above.
  • They need to create a follow-through bull bar breaking above the August 23 high to increase the odds of testing the July trading range high.
  • If the market trades lower, they want the bull trend line or the 20-week EMA to act as support.
  • The bears see the current bull leg as a buy vacuum test of the trading range high (Dec or July).
  • They see this week as a retest of the prior high (Aug 23) forming a lower high major trend reversal.
  • They want a reversal from around the upper third of the large trading range from a double top bear flag (Dec 28 and Aug 23) and a small double top (Aug 23 and Sep 18).
  • They need to create consecutive bear bars closing near their lows to increase the odds of the bear leg beginning.
  • Since this week’s candlestick is a bull bar closing near its high, it is a buy signal bar for next week.
  • Traders will see if the bull can create a follow-through bull bar (even if it is a bull doji) breaking above the August high.
  • Or will the market trade slightly higher but stall around the August 23 high area instead?
  • The market trades around the upper third of the large trading range which can be the sell zone of trading range traders.
  • The EURUSD is in a 96-week trading range. (Trading range high: July 2023, Trading range low: Oct 2023). 
  • Traders will continue to BLSH (Buy Low, Sell High) within a trading range until a breakout with follow-through selling/buying.
  • Poor follow-through and reversals are hallmarks of a trading range.

The Daily EURUSD chart

EURUSD Daily: Double Top or Breakout with FT Buying?
  • The EURUSD traded sideways to up for the week. Wednesday retested the August 23 high but lacked follow-through buying. Thursday traded lower but reversed into a big bull bar. Friday was a bull doji.
  • Last week, we said the market may trade slightly lower early in the week. If the market continues to stall around the 20-day EMA, that will increase the odds of another retest of the August 23 high.
  • Previously, the bulls created a tight bull channel testing the December high.
  • They see the recent move (Sep 11) as a two-legged pullback forming a double bottom bull flag (Sep 3 and Sep 11).
  • They got a retest of the August high and want a breakout with follow-through buying.
  • The next target for the bulls is the July high.
  • They must create a strong breakout (above Aug high) with follow-through buying to increase the odds of testing the July high.
  • If the market trades lower, they want the 20-day EMA or the bull trend line to act as support.
  • The bears see the prior rally (Aug 23) as a buy vacuum test of the trading range high.
  • They see this week as a retest of the prior high (Aug 23) forming a lower high major trend reversal.
  • They want a reversal from a large double top bear flag (Sep 3 and Sep 11) and a small double top (Aug 23 and Sep 18), around the upper third of the large trading range.
  • While Thursday traded lower, the lack of follow-through selling indicates that the bears are not yet as strong as they hope to be.
  • They must create consecutive bear bars closing near their lows and trading far below the 20-day EMA to increase the odds of the bear leg beginning.
  • For now, the odds slightly favor sideways to up still.
  • Traders will see if the bull can create a breakout above the August high with follow-through buying. If they can do that, the odds of retesting the July high will increase.
  • Or will the market trade slightly higher but stall around the August high area and start to form bear bars instead?
  • The market is trading near the upper third of the large trading range which can be the sell zone of trading range traders.
  • Traders will continue to BLSH (Buy Low, Sell High) within a trading range until a breakout with follow-through selling/buying.
  • Poor follow-through and reversals are hallmarks of a trading range.

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