Emini Trump rally buy climax testing 2400
Updated 6:47 a.m.
While the Emini continued yesterday’s selloff on the open, limit orders bulls made money. Since yesterday was a trading range day, the odds are that today will find support near yesterday’s low. Furthermore, the bull trend of the past 2 weeks will probably transition into a trading range before the bears can take control. Therefore, the odds favor trading range price action over the next few days.
The early bars had reversals and prominent tails. Furthermore, limit order bulls and bears made money. This increases the chances of a trading range for the 1st 1 – 2 hours. In addition, it increases the chances that today will be mostly a trading range day. However, it might test below yesterday’s low before there is a bull swing.
If there is a strong breakout with follow-through, traders will conclude that the day evolved into a trend. The odds are against it. Yet, a trading range day often has both a swing up and down. While the Emini is Always In Short, it is at yesterday’s major higher low. This is therefore a buy zone. The bulls have not yet done enough to create a credible bottom. The Emini might therefore work down to yesterday’s low and the 60 minute moving average before the bulls take control.
Pre-Open Market Analysis
The Emini gapped up again yesterday. It therefore now has consecutive gaps up on the weekly chart. Because that is unusual, it is unsustainable and therefore climactic. Hence, the odds are that yesterday’s gap is an exhaustion gap. Therefore, it probably will close this week.
The Emini is far above the daily moving average. Therefore it will probably pause for a week or two. Hence, the Emini will probably go sideways for the rest of the week. While a 5% correction is likely within the next couple of months, there is no clear top yet.
The Emini is now within a cluster of measured move projections. In addition, it is far above the moving average. Hence, it will probably not continue much longer without a pullback. It is important to note that the sideways move over the next week could create enough selling pressure for the 5% correction to begin anytime afterwards.
Since the Emini is probably in the early part of a trading range on the daily chart, the 5 minute chart will probably pull back more deeply and often.
Overnight Emini Globex trading
The Emini is down 2 points in the Globex session. The bears created a micro double top on the 60 minute chart yesterday. Furthermore, the buy climax is now at measured move targets. In addition, it broke above an ii on the daily chart, which is often a final flag. Finally, it has been above a bull channel on the daily chart for 6 days. All of these factors make a continued rally unlikely this week. The odds are that the Emini will go sideways for at least a week.
Yesterday’s two strong selloffs were probably the start of the transition. Hence, instead of bull trend days, the Emini will probably begin to create trading range days and some bear trend days. Because the Emini has not had a bear day with a close below its midpoint in a couple of weeks, it will probably have one this week.
While a strong bear trend is possible at any time, it is unlikely until after the Emini goes sideways for several days. Strong bull trends usually transition into trading ranges, not bear trends.
EURUSD Forex Market Trading Strategies
The 3 week selloff lacked consecutive strong bear bars on the daily chart. It is therefore more likely a bear leg and a wedge bull flag in the 4 month trading range. The January 11 low of 1.0453 is the next support.
Since legs in trading ranges usually go below support before reversing up, this selloff might fall further. There is a wedge bull flag as well. The odds are that the EURUSD will rally over the next week or two to at least last week’s high. It will probably stall there.
There is a nested wedge bottom on the 240 minute chart (not shown. This therefore increases the chances of a successful reversal up. The bulls want a head and shoulders bottom on hte daily chart, while the bears want a new 15 year low. Because trading ranges resist breakouts, the odds are that the EURUSD will rally at least 100 – 200 pips over the next few weeks. Yet, there is no clear bottom yet.
Overnight EURUSD Forex trading
The EURUSD Forex market was in a 25 pip range overnight. The bulls are therefore trying to stop the selling. If they are successful, they will then try to create a buy setup for a rally up from around the January 11 major higher low.
Since the selloff on the 240 minute chart is in a tight bear channel, the bulls will probably need a micro double bottom before they can create a swing up. Hence, today will probably be mostly sideways as the bulls try to create their bottom. Because the selloff is now close to the January 11 low, the odds are that it will continue down to that low before the rally begins. Yet, it can begin at any time.
Summary of today’s S&P Emini futures price action and what to expect tomorrow
The Emini had another trading range day today.
The Emini had a trading range today. There is now a 2 day bull flag on the 60 minute chart. I addition, it is late in a bull trend. Furthermore, the Emini is at measured move targets on the weekly chart. Hence, a bull breakout will probably not go far. Therefore the 2 day trading range will probably be the final bull flag. If the bears create a gap down tomorrow or soon, that gap would create an island top. While most tops fail, the odds are that one will soon be successful and lead to a test of the December 30 close.
See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly candlestick chart and for what to expect going into next week.
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When I mention time, it is USA Pacific Standard Time (the Emini day session opens at 6:30 am PST, and closes at 1:15 pm PST). You can read background information on the intraday market reports on the Intraday Market Update page.
