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Emini Strong Reversal Up

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Trading Update: Thursday September 12, 2024

End of day video review

Brad Wolff Emini EOD Review

S&P Emini market analysis

Emini daily chart

  • The Emini formed a strong reversal up yesterday after the market failed to break below the September 6th low.
  • The bulls are hopeful that yesterday is the start of a reversal up. However, more likely, the bulls will be disappointed.
  • Yesterday was a reminder that the daily chart is in a trading range. Traders are hopeful for second legs following breakouts but are having to wait through deep pullbacks.
  • The rally up to the August high was strong enough that the market may have to retest it before the bears can get a second leg down after the selloff to the September 6th low.
  • The bulls want today to become a strong follow-through bar, following yesterday’s reversal up.
  • More likely, today will disappoint the bulls and not lead to a strong follow-through bar.

Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today

  • Today opened with a very small gap that closed during bar 1.
  • Yesterday’s reversal up was climactic. This increases the odds that today, there will be a lot of trading range price action.
  • There is a 75% chance of sideways trading beginning before the end of the second hour. There is a 50% chance of follow-through buying on the open, followed by the above 75% probability of a trading range lasting two hours.
  • Traders should be patient and not be in a rush to trade the first 6-12 bars due to the odds favoring a trading range.
  • If the bears are going to get a reversal down today, they will need to create a lot of selling pressure. At a minimum, they will need to get closes below the moving average. Without this, the odds will favor sideways to up trading.
  • Traders should pay attention to the open of the day as it will likely be a magnet for most of the day.

Yesterday’s Emini setups

SP500 Emini 5-Minute Chart Sell Climax Then Small PB Bull Trend

Al created the SP500 Emini charts.

Here are reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. I show each buy entry bar with a green arrow and each sell entry bar with a red arrow. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a near 4-year library of more detailed explanations of swing trade setups (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups). Encyclopedia members get current daily charts added to Encyclopedia.

My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.

It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.

If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro Emini.

EURUSD Forex market trading strategies

EURUSD Forex daily chart

  • The EURUSD is beginning to stall after forming a second leg down following the Selloff at the end of August.
  • The odds favor a trading range and not a strong downside breakout.
  • The bears did a good job over the past 4 trading days, however, yesterday was a doji and a sign that the bears are losing momentum. This increases the odds that today will form a bull bar.
  • Overall, the bears were two legs down following a strong rally in August. This increases the odds that the market is forming a trading range and not a bear trend, meaning the EURUSD will probably rally for a couple of legs.
  • The bears, at a minimum, need to start getting close below the moving average if they are going to take control of the market.

Summary of today’s S&P Emini price action

SP500 Emini 5-Minute Chart Wedge Top Failed Then Trending Trading Range

Al created the SP500 Emini charts.

See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.

Trading Room

Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed Emini price action real-time each day in the BrooksPriceAction.com trading room days. We offer a 2 day free trial.

Charts use Pacific Time

When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.

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