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Emini Second Leg Up to August High

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Trading Update: Tuesday June 13, 2023

S&P Emini pre-open market analysis

Emini daily chart

  • The Emini is getting a Second Leg up to the August 2022 High and the 4,400 Big Round Number.
  • The bulls got a strong bull bar last Thursday, closing on its high, and a doji last Friday. However, the doji continued last Thursday’s bull bar, which followed a pullback intra-bar.
  • This means that the past three trading days was a two-legged rally and test of 4,400.
  • The market is so close to the 4,400 round number that it will probably have to reach it in the next day or two.
  • The rally over the past two weeks is in a tight bull channel. This increases the odds of higher prices and a test of the August 2022 high.
  • The bears hope they can get a lower high and a selloff. However, they will likely need to show more signs of strength before they have a credible chance of reversing the market.
  • Bull trends typically transition into trading ranges and not bear trends. This means that even if the bears can reverse the market, it will probably lead to sideways trading.
  • The bears will try their best to prevent today from getting strong follow-through buying after yesterday’s bull breakout.
  • The bulls hope that today will continue the bull breakout. They want another strong bull trend bar to demonstrate bullish strength.
  • The market is so close to August 2022 that it will probably have to reach it. Traders do not know if the market will have to pull back first before reaching the August 2022 high.

Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today

  • Emini is up 25 points in the overnight Globex session.
  • The overnight Globex session went above the 4,400 round number by two points. This is enough of a test to satisfy the requirement of testing the round number.
  • Yesterday formed a climactic rally into the close. There is a 75% chance that today will have two hours of sideways trading beginning before the end of the second hour. There is 50% of follow-through buying on the open and 75% of two hours of sideways trading.
  • There is only a 25% of bull trend from the open without going sideways for two hours.
  • Traders should expect trading range price action on the open. This means most traders should be patient unless they are comfortable with limit order trading.
  • Since the odds favor two hours of sideways trading, traders should be cautious. Traders should expect disappointment after every breakout until there is a clear breakout with follow-through beyond support or resistance.
  • Most traders should try to catch the opening swing that typically begins after the formation of a double top/bottom or a wedge top/bottom. Typically, 80% of the time, the market forms some form of the trading range open (double top/bottom or wedge top/bottom) before the opening swing begins. Only 20% of the time, there is an immediate trend from the open without forming a trading range.
  • Since there is a 75% chance of two hours of sideways trading on the open, traders should be cautious about being too eager to catch the opening swing. The opening swing may begin two hours after the required sideways trading.
  • Lastly, traders should pay attention to the following magnets, the open of the day, yesterday’s high and low, and lastly, the 4,400 big round number.

Yesterday’s Emini setups

SP500 Emini 5-Min Wedge Selloff to DB Then Small Pullback Bull Trend

Al created the SP500 Emini charts.

Here are several reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. I show each buy entry with a green rectangle and each sell entry with a red rectangle. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a near 4-year library of more detailed explanations of swing trade setups (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups). Encyclopedia members get current daily charts added to Encyclopedia.

My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.

It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.

If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro Emini.

EURUSD Forex market trading strategies

EURUSD Forex daily chart

EURUSD Daily Bull Breakout of Bear Flag
  • The Bears failed to get a strong entry bar following the June 9th second entry short at the moving average.
  • The bull got an upside breakout this morning, a second leg up following the June 8th bull breakout.
  • The bulls have a breakout above the moving average. Next, they want a strong bull close above the moving average to demonstrate bullish strength.
  • The bears will see today’s bull breakout as a possible wedge top with June 2nd and June 8th.
  • The bears had a reasonable bear flag that ended with the June 9th second entry short (Low 2). The bulls want a bull breakout of the bear flag and a measured move up to the May 10th breakout point low.
  • Because the market is in a trading range, a bull breakout of the bear flag is a higher probability than it may appear.
  • Overall, traders will pay close attention to today’s close to see how determined the bulls are to get a strong bull close.

Summary of today’s S&P Emini price action

SP500 Emini 5-Min Wedge Bottom LL DB Then Trading Range Day

Al created the SP500 Emini charts.

End of day video review

Today’s End Of Day review will be presented in the Trading Room and only available to the trading room subscribers.

See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.

Trading Room

Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed Emini price action real-time each day in the BrooksPriceAction.com trading room days. We offer a 2 day free trial.

Charts use Pacific Time

When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.

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