Trading Update: Friday November 15, 2024
S&P Emini market analysis
Emini daily chart
- The Emini broke below Wednesday’s inside bar yesterday and closed below the low of the past five days.
- The October 17th breakout point high is a logical magnet for the market to test, and that is what is happening right now.
- The bulls know that the odds favor a test closer to the October 17th breakout point high.
- This is because every new high above a swing point (August 26th, September 26th ) was retested, and the market went below it.
- The daily chart is in a bull channel. This means that traders will sell out of longs at new highs and look to buy pullbacks. The bears will also sell to go short at new highs and take profits on retests of breakout point highs, such as October 17th.
- Bulls who bought the breakout above October 17th were buying strong momentum. Once the momentum began to dry up, those bulls would begin to take profits and reduce their position.
- The bears want a reversal down to the November low. Ideally, the bears need a strong bear breakout with follow-through closing below the moving average. At a minimum, the bears need to make the market go sideways and build the selling pressure by creating bear bars closing on their lows.
- Overall, the market will probably reach the October 17th high in the next few days. Even if the market gets a second leg up above the November high, the odds favor the October 17th breakout points high closing.
Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today
- The Globex market has gone sideways for most of the overnight and early morning hours.
- Today, there will probably be a lot of trading range price action on the open.
- There is typically an 80% chance of a trading range open and only a 20% chance of a trend from the open on any given day.
- Most traders should consider waiting for 6-12 bars unless they can make quick decisions.
- Most days have an opening swing that begins before the end of the second hour. The opening swing is important because it often lasts for two legs and two hours, making it an excellent opportunity for a swing trade.
- The opening swing will often double the opening range at least 40% of the time.
- Since there is an 80% chance of a trading range open, it is typical for the opening swing to begin after the formation of a double top/bottom or a wedge top/bottom.
- This means a trader can wait for one of the abovementioned patterns to form before placing a trade.
- Today is Friday, so weekly support and resistance are important. Traders should be mindful and ready for a surprise breakout late in the day as traders decide to close the weekly chart.
- The most important thing on the open is to be patient and not in a rush. A trade is never overdue; if one is confused about what the market is doing, it is best to step aside until one has more clarity.
Yesterday’s Emini setups
Al created the SP500 Emini charts.
Here are reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. I show each buy entry bar with a green arrow and each sell entry bar with a red arrow. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a near 4-year library of more detailed explanations of swing trade setups (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups). Encyclopedia members get current daily charts added to Encyclopedia.
My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.
It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.
If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro Emini.
Summary of today’s S&P Emini price action
Al created the SP500 Emini charts.
Emini end of day video review
Periodic end of day review videos will be moved to top of page when done.
EURUSD Forex market analysis
EURUSD Forex daily chart
- The EURUSD formed a tail below yesterday’s bar. Yesterday was the fifth consecutive bear bar in a row and part of a seven-bar bear microchannel.
- The odds are that the EURUSD is going to get a pullback soon and go sideways for two legs.
- The bulls want a strong reversal up. However, the first reversal up is likely to be minor.
See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.
Trading Room
Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed Emini price action real-time each day in the BrooksPriceAction.com trading room days. We offer a 2 day free trial.
Charts use Pacific Time
When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.
