Emini Hesitation Likely after Yesterday

Trading Update: Thursday July 25, 2024

S&P Emini pre-open market analysis

Emini daily chart

• The Emini formed a strong downside breakout yesterday, following Tuesday’s Low 1 Sell Signal Bar. However, because the breakout yesterday is climactic, the market may have to go sideways for a day or two.
• Yesterday was a strong enough surprise that the odds favor lower prices.
• The bulls are hopeful that today will form a strong bull reversal bar closing on its high. This would create a second entry buy setup on the daily chart.
• While the market may have to pull back for a day or two, the odds favor sellers above and a second leg down, even if the market gets a deep pullback first.  
• The 5,500 round number was a logical support level for the market to test yesterday. There are likely buyers at the 5,500 round number that are willing to scale in lower. This means that the market may have to test up to the 5,500 round number today.
• Overall, the Bears have done a great job with the selling over the past several days. However, the market will probably have to go sideways to up for a day or two.

Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today

• The Globex market went sideways for most of the overnight session.
• The bears formed a downside breakout on the open. However, because yesterday was so climactic, the odds favored buyers below and a trading range or bull trend today.
• The bulls, as of bar 18, have made the market clearly Always In Long.
• At the moment, it looks like the market is going to reach the 5,500 round number sometime today.
• Bar 24, the bulls reached the 5,500 round number magnet. This was likely due to the scale in bulls buying below 5,500 on the daily chart and scaling in lower.
• The rally up to bar 22 is a strong bull trend, and the odds favor buyers below.
• The selloff to bar 27 is a minor reversal, and the odds favor a retest of 22 high.
• The bears need to first stop the buying and make the market go sideways for several bars.
• Next, the need to from a major trend reversal. At this time the odds favor higher prices. The bears need to start getting closes below the moving average or else the market is likely going to continue to go sideways to up.

Yesterday’s Emini setups

Al created the SP500 Emini charts.

Here are reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. I show each buy entry bar with a green arrow and each sell entry bar with a red arrow. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a near 4-year library of more detailed explanations of swing trade setups (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups). Encyclopedia members get current daily charts added to Encyclopedia.

My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.

It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.

If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro Emini.

EURUSD Forex market trading strategies

EURUSD Forex daily chart

• The EURUSD formed a bull doji today. This is a sign of the momentum for the bears getting weaker.
•  The market is approaching the midpoint of the July rally, which is likely to act as a support level for the bulls. This increases the odds of a bounce over the next couple of days.
• The current selloff is in a six-bar bear microchannel, which increases the odds of sellers above and a small second leg down.
• Because the July rally is strong, the market may have to form a second leg up and test the July high.
• Overall, the market is likely to begin to go sideways at the 50% support level.

Summary of today’s S&P Emini price action

Al created the SP500 Emini charts.

See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.

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Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed Emini price action real-time each day in the BrooksPriceAction.com trading room days. We offer a 2 day free trial.

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Charts use Pacific Time

When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.

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