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Emini Far from Moving Average and 5,000 Round Number

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Trading Update: Monday February 12, 2024

End of day video review

S&P Emini pre-open market analysis

Emini daily chart

  • The Emini is far from the moving average and the 5,000 round number, which increases the odds of a pullback this week.
  • The Emini rallied on Friday after last Thursday’s inside bar, which is a High 1 buy signal bar.
  • Inside bars late in a bull trend often act as final flags, leading to a pullback within a bar or two. This increases the odds of the Bulls getting disappointed and having a pullback today or tomorrow.
  • While the bulls have done a great job with the buying pressure, this will probably lead to profit-taking and sideways to down trading.
  • The bears need to develop more selling pressure to take control of the market.
  • The Emini has only had three closes below the moving average since mid-November last year. This is a sign of strong trending behavior. Trends typically evolve into trading ranges and not opposite trends. This means that the bears need to form a trading range before they will have a shot at a bear trend.

Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today

  • Emini is down 2 points in the overnight Globex session.
  • The Globex market has been in a tight trading range for most of the overnight session.
  • The open of the U.S. Session will likely have little to no gap.
  • As I often say, traders should expect the open to have a lot of trading range price action. This means that most traders should consider not trading during the first 6 – 12 bars unless they can use wide stops and trade with limit orders.
  • Most traders should wait for the market to form a double top/bottom or a wedge top/bottom, often leading to the opening swing.
  • It is common for the market to form a swing trade before the end of the second, which lasts for two legs and two hours.
  • Today will probably form a disappointment bar, following Friday’s bull trend bar. This means traders should pay attention to Friday’s close and the day’s open, as they will likely act as resistance.
  • The most important thing on the open is being patient and not rushing to trade. A trader needs one to three reasonable trades a day, and there is plenty of time to find them.

Friday’s Emini setups

SP500 Emini 5-Min Chart High 2 and Then Small Pullback Bull Trend

Al created the SP500 Emini charts.

Here are reasonable stop entry setups from Friday. I show each buy entry bar with a green arrow and each sell entry bar with a red arrow. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a near 4-year library of more detailed explanations of swing trade setups (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups). Encyclopedia members get current daily charts added to Encyclopedia.

My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.

It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.

If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro Emini.

EURUSD Forex market trading strategies

EURUSD Forex daily chart

  • The EURUSD formed four consecutive bull bars and today is attempting to form a bear reversal bar.
  • The bears are still hopeful that the market will get a second leg down after the two-bar breakout on February 5th.
  • The bulls see the market close to major support, the December 2023 low. They want the downside breakout to fail and form a double bottom with the February 6th low.
  • The market is still Always In Short, however, the four consecutive bull bars at the December 2023 low is disappointing for the bears.

Summary of today’s S&P Emini price action

SP500 Emini 5-Min Chart Bull Trend From Open Then Reversal Down

Al created the SP500 Emini charts.

See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.

Trading Room

Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed Emini price action real-time each day in the BrooksPriceAction.com trading room days. We offer a 2 day free trial.

Charts use Pacific Time

When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.

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