Emini Closing above March All Time High

Trading Update: Thursday May 16, 2024

S&P Emini pre-open market analysis

Emini daily chart

• The Emini formed a strong bull breakout yesterday, closing above the 5,300 round number and the March all-time high.
• The Bears are hopeful that yesterday was just a buy vacuum test of the all-time high that would lead to profit-taking and sideways to down trading.
• While yesterday is a climactic bar, which increases the odds of sideways trading for at least a few bars, the rally is strong. This increases the odds that the first reversal down will be minor. This means that there are likely buyers below scaling in lower, and they will probably be able to exit near yesterday’s high close on a retest.

Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today

• The Globex market went sideways to down during the overnight session. The bears tried to get a downside breakout around 8:00 AM EST. However, it failed, and the market reversed up on the open.
• The bulls are hopeful that today will become another bull trend day, creating follow-through on the daily chart.
• Because yesterday was a strong bull trend day, traders will expect today to have a lot of trading range price action.
• There is a 75% chance that the market will form a trading range lasting at least two hours, beginning before the end of the second hour.
• There is a 50% chance of follow-through buying on the open, followed by a 75% chance of two hours of sideways trading after.

Emini Intra-Day Update

• The Emini opened with a small gap up and went sideways near the high of yesterday’s bar 78 for several bars on the open.
• The bulls ended up forming a rally lasting about 18 bars. As I mentioned above, when the prior day is a strong climactic trend, there is a 50% chance of a trend resumption on the open, followed by sideways trading lasting for two hours.
• By bar 45, the market was in breakout mode at the moving average, making the probability of a breakout up or down 50%.
• The bears formed a surprise downside breakout on bar 47 that formed a 2^nd leg down with the selloff to bar 57.
• When you get a large breakout bar like 47, which is larger than all the bars to the left, there is an additional risk that the market will go sideways for several bars before the bears get their second leg. This is common when the days have a lot of trading range price action.
• Traders should continue to monitor the open of the day as that will likely be an important magnet going into the close.
• The Bulls are hopeful that today will close above the open of the day, creating a follow-through bar on the daily chart after yesterday’s strong breakout. The bears want the opposite which would increase the probability that the daily chart will begin to go sideways soon.

Yesterday’s Emini setups

Al created the SP500 Emini charts.

Here are reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. I show each buy entry bar with a green arrow and each sell entry bar with a red arrow. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a near 4-year library of more detailed explanations of swing trade setups (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups). Encyclopedia members get current daily charts added to Encyclopedia.

My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.

It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.

If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro Emini.

EURUSD Forex market trading strategies

EURUSD Forex daily chart

• Yesterday, the EURUSD formed a bull breakout bar that closed on its high. The May 15^th rally is strong enough for a second leg up.
• Today (5/16) formed a bear reversal bar but failed to close on its low. This increases the odds that there are buyers below.
• The bears are hopeful that the recent bull breakout is a buy vacuum test of the April 9^th high.
• Next, they want a reversal down and break below the neckline (April low).
• The bears will need 2-3 average-size bear bars at a minimum if they can get a downside breakout.
• Even if the bears get 2-3 bear bars, the odds favor buyers below and a retest of the May 15^th high close.
• Overall, buyers are probably below the May 16^th low, and the odds favor a second leg up.  

Summary of today’s S&P Emini price action

Al created the SP500 Emini charts.

See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.

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Trading Room

Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed Emini price action real-time each day in the BrooksPriceAction.com trading room days. We offer a 2 day free trial.

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Charts use Pacific Time

When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.

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