Brooks Trading Course

Learn to Trade Price Action Consistently

 

More results...

Emini Bulls Want Reversal Bar

By

Trading Update: Wednesday October 4, 2023

S&P Emini pre-open market analysis

Emini daily chart

  • The Emini broke below the September 27th low and closed below it. However, yesterday’s breakout formed a big tail below, which increases the odds of today forming a bull reversal bar.
  • The bulls see yesterday as a retest of the September 27th low. Next, the bulls will try to form a strong bull reversal bar today to convince the bears to exit shorts.
  • The bulls still have the August 18th breakout point low as a target. Since the daily chart is in a trading range, it is reasonable to assume that the bulls will likely reach this target.
  • This would allow the trapped bulls who bought the August 18th low to exit their trade with a profit, assuming they scaled in lower.
  • The bears hope they can prevent the bulls from reaching the August 18th low, creating a successful measuring gap. The first target for the bears would be a measured move from the September 1st high to the August 18th low, which projects to 4,200.     
  • The next target would be a measured move from the July 27th high to the August 18th low, which projects near the 4,100-price level.

Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today

  • Emini is up 5 points in the overnight Globex session.
  • The market reversed following a brief selloff in the early morning hours. The bulls hope that the recent Globex rally will lead to an early low during the U.S. session.
  • As always, traders should expect the trading range to open and the market to go sideways for the first 6-12 bars. There is only a 20% chance that today will form a trend from the open.
  • Most traders should try and catch the opening swing that often forms a double top/bottom or a wedge top/bottom.
  • Lastly, trades should pay close attention to the open of the day since the bears will try and get a bull reversal bar.

Yesterday’s Emini setups

SP500 Emini 5-Minute Chart Bull Trap Sell Climax Then Trading Range

Al created the SP500 Emini charts.

Here are several reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. I show each buy entry with a green rectangle and each sell entry with a red rectangle. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a near 4-year library of more detailed explanations of swing trade setups (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups). Encyclopedia members get current daily charts added to Encyclopedia.

My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.

It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.

If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro Emini.

EURUSD Forex market trading strategies

EURUSD Forex daily chart

  • No Chart Today
  • The EURUSD formed a strong bear breakout (Oct 2nd) following the September 29th bear Low 1.
  • While the bear breakout was strong, the context was not ideal for the bear. The bears are likely exhausted, and the downside channel will probably transition into a trading range soon.
  • The market has not touched the moving average (blue line) in 23 bars, another sign of exhausted bears.
  • The bulls recently formed a sharp reversal this morning. The first target for the bulls is a test of the September 29th Low 1.
  • The next target for the bulls is a test of the 1.0600 round number and the moving average.
  • Assuming today closes near its higher or above its midpoint, bears should exit above today’s bar.

Summary of today’s S&P Emini price action

SP500 Emini 5-Minute Chart Wedge Bottom Then Higher Low Double Bottom

Al created the SP500 Emini charts.

See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.

Trading Room

Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed Emini price action real-time each day in the BrooksPriceAction.com trading room days. We offer a 2 day free trial.

Charts use Pacific Time

When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.

>