Trading Update: Monday December 11, 2023
S&P Emini pre-open market analysis
Emini daily chart
- The Emini continues to go sideways following the strong rally in November. The bulls formed a bull breakout bar last Friday, and they want follow-through buying today.
- The moving average is getting closer to the current price, and the market continues to go sideways every day.
- The odds are high that the market will reach the moving average soon. This is because the longer the market stays away from the average price while going sideways, the more traders will want to buy closer to the average price (moving average).
- The market may sell off over the next few days to test closer to the moving average.
- Every strong bull close within the tight trading range over the past several weeks has led to sellers above. This means more sellers might be above last Friday’s high, leading to bad follow-through today.
- Overall, traders should expect more sideways trading to continue, and a test of the moving average.
Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today
- Emini is down 5 points in the overnight Globex session.
- Traders should expect today’s open to have a lot of trading range price action. This means that most traders should consider not trading for the first 6 – 12 bars unless they can make quick decisions since most reversals often fail.
- Traders should pay attention to last Friday’s high as it will likely be an important magnet. The bulls want follow-through buying today, and the bears want to create a failed breakout above it.
- Because the daily chart has been in a tight trading range, traders should be prepared for the market to form another trading range day. This means that traders should expect breakouts to be limited and not form a strong trend for the market.
- If the open begins to form consecutive strong trend bars, especially a breakout out beyond support or resistance, one must not be in denial of a possible trend.
- Most traders should focus on catching the opening swing that often begins before the end of the second hour, typically after forming a double top/bottom or a wedge top/bottom.
Friday’s Emini setups
Al created the SP500 Emini charts.
Here are reasonable stop entry setups from Friday. I show each buy entry bar with a green arrow and each sell entry bar with a red arrow. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a near 4-year library of more detailed explanations of swing trade setups (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups). Encyclopedia members get current daily charts added to Encyclopedia.
My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.
It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.
If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro Emini.
EURUSD Forex market trading strategies
EURUSD Forex daily chart
- The EURUSD is continuing to go sideways near the November 6th breakout point high.
- While the bears have done a great job over the past several days, the EURUSD will probably bounce for at least a few legs sideways to up, before the bears can get their second leg down.
- Because the November 28th high is tight, the first reversal up will probably be minor.
- If the bulls are going to get a reversal up, they will likely need a double bottom with decent buying pressure.
Summary of today’s S&P Emini price action
Al created the SP500 Emini charts.
End of day video review
See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.
Trading Room
Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed Emini price action real-time each day in the BrooksPriceAction.com trading room days. We offer a 2 day free trial.
Charts use Pacific Time
When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.
Hello
I have a few questions and I would be really grateful if someone could answer them
I thought the sell stop entries on bars 11 and 13 was reasonable, because there was a MAG Y on bar 80 and 81, and as far as I know there is a 60% chance of an attempt at a MTR, which I think It was bar 11 and 13. A wedge LH MTR with Y’s H.
What do you think about bar 75?
I thought there was a L2 with 70 and a DT with 57
Isn’t this S signal on bar 75 the same setup as Al describes about the TTRs that leading to a MTR?