Emini Bears Want Bad Follow-through

Trading Update: Monday November 13, 2023

S&P Emini pre-open market analysis

Emini daily chart

• The Emini has gone sideways for the past five days and recently broke out to the upside last Friday. The bears want to create bad follow-through after last Friday’s upside breakout.
• The bulls closed above the October 17^th major lower high. The next target is the September 1^st beginning of the bear channel.
• At the moment, the odds favor higher prices, even if the market pulls back for a bar or two.
• The bears are hopeful that today will be a bear reversal bar, creating a failed breakout of the October 17^th high. Even if today is a bear bar, the odds favor a minor reversal and trading range at best for the bears.
• The bulls are hopeful that today will create a large bull follow-through bar, increasing the odds of higher prices.
• Overall, the odds favor a second leg-up test of the September 1^st high, even if the market gets a deep pullback first.

Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today

• Emini is down 15 points in the overnight Globex session.
• The overnight Globex market rallied, testing the highs of November 10^th. The bulls were disappointed and sold out of longs, and the bears went short.
• Today will probably have a lot of trading price action.
• Traders should consider waiting for 6 – 12 bars before placing a trade. This is because the open often has several failed breakouts, leading to a sideways market.
• Most traders should try and catch the opening swing that often begins before the end of the second hour. It is typical for the opening swing to develop after a double top/bottom or a wedge top/bottom.
• Traders should pay attention to the open of the day as it will probably be a magnet today. The bulls want follow-through after last Friday’s rally, and the bears want the opposite.

Friday’s Emini setups

Al created the SP500 Emini charts.

Here are reasonable stop entry setups from Friday. I show each buy entry bar with a green arrow and each sell entry bar with a red arrow. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a near 4-year library of more detailed explanations of swing trade setups (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups). Encyclopedia members get current daily charts added to Encyclopedia.

My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.

It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.

If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro Emini.

EURUSD Forex market trading strategies

EURUSD Forex daily chart

• The EURUSD recently had an upside breakout two weeks ago, and the market has been in a pullback since the breakout.
• The pullback has lasted for five bars, and traders are beginning to question if the pullback is instead becoming a reversal.
• The bulls hope today will lead to a strong upside breakout following last Friday’s second entry buy.
• The risk the bulls face is a second-leg trap. This means that there is the risk of a bear breakout below the second entry buy and a measured move down of the past five bars.
• Overall, the bulls need a strong upside breakout. Otherwise, the odds will favor more sideways trading.

Summary of today’s S&P Emini price action

Al created the SP500 Emini charts.

End of day video review

See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.

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Trading Room

Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed Emini price action real-time each day in the BrooksPriceAction.com trading room days. We offer a 2 day free trial.

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Charts use Pacific Time

When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.

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