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Emini Bears Giving Up Interest in Selling Higher

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Trading Update: Thursday August 15, 2024

S&P Emini market analysis

Emini daily chart

  • The Emini formed a bull follow-through bar yesterday, following Tuesday’s large upside breakout above the 20-day exponential moving average.
  • This likely made the market Always In Long and strong enough for a second leg up. The odds favored buyers below because the market was crossing the moving average and formed a follow-through bar within an 8-bar bull micro channel.
  • Bulls were worried about the possibility of higher prices before a deep pullback. This caused traders to buy the close of yesterday’s follow-through bar if the market continues to increase.
  • The Bulls have done a great job getting the rally since the August 5th low. However, the market is approaching the 5,600 round number, a logical resistance area.
  • The daily chart is in a trading range, increasing the odds of the market beginning to stall near the 5,600 round number and going sideways.

Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today

  • The Emini formed a strong upside breakout during the 8:30 AM EST report bar. This Upside breakout was strong enough that the odds favored a 2nd leg up and possibly a measured move of the breakout.
  • The open of the U.S. Session formed a large gap up. Traders expect the open to go sideways and attempt to get a 2nd leg up, which is why the market rallied up from the bar 9 low.
  • As of bar 16, the rally is forming a parabolic wedge top which is far from the moving average. This increases the risk of the market getting two legs sideways to down and reaching the moving average.
  • At the moment, the rally up to bar 16 is strong enough that there are likely buyers somewhere below for a 2nd leg up.

Yesterday’s Emini setups

SP500 Emini 5-Minute Chart Bear Trap Rally Then Trading Range

Al created the SP500 Emini charts.

Here are reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. I show each buy entry bar with a green arrow and each sell entry bar with a red arrow. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a near 4-year library of more detailed explanations of swing trade setups (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups). Encyclopedia members get current daily charts added to Encyclopedia.

My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.

It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.

If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro Emini.

Summary of today’s S&P Emini price action

SP500 Emini 5-Min Chart Double Bottom and Then Small PB Bull Trend

Al created the SP500 Emini charts.

See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.

Trading Room

Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed Emini price action real-time each day in the BrooksPriceAction.com trading room days. We offer a 2 day free trial.

Charts use Pacific Time

When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.

  • On the 8/14 setups, if you wouldn’t sell below 13 because you think it’s a bear trap, why wouldn’t you buy above 14?

    • I think it’s an omission. Buying above 14 is certainly better than buying above 40. 13 is a failed wedge that failed and a climax. The selling from 1 to 10 is also weaker than from 32 to 36.

    • It is not know the 13 is a bear trap before the market confirms it. Therefore the summary does not mark the trap because it is expecting it to be a trap but because it has turned out to be a trap. Hence, no buy right after 14, the odds favor buy only after 16 when 14 gets a follow-through confirmation and a strong signal bar.

  • Brad, you have been saying that there is a risk of falling to 5,000 points before. Why didn’t the market go that way？

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