Emini with 11-bar bull micro channel in early July

Trading Update: Tuesday July 6, 2021

Emini pre-open market analysis

Emini daily chart

• 11-bar bull micro channel (every low at or above low of prior day).
• 60-minute chart has 69 bars above EMA so buy climax.
• Both are unusual and therefore unsustainable and buy climaxes.
• Should get a pullback this week.
• Since strong bull trend, bulls will buy the 1^st pullback.
• But, resumption up from 1^st pullback in buy climax usually does not get far before the market enters a trading range.
• Therefore, higher prices likely, but will probably convert into a trading range at some point in July.

Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today

• Emini is down 2 points in the overnight Globex session.
• Because of the streaks on the daily and 60-minute charts, should get pullback today or tomorrow.
• The pullback could be a big bear trend day, or the Emini might just go slightly down for a couple days. However, the odds are against a 3^rd consecutive big bull trend day.
• 5-minute and daily charts might contain Monday’s trading for the 1st couple hours today. However, if you then refresh your data, those bars usually will disappear.

Last Friday’s Emini setups

Here are several reasonable stop entry setups from Friday (before US holiday weekend). I show each buy entry with a green rectangle and each sell entry with a red rectangle. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a much more detailed explanation of the swing trades for each day (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups).

My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries. 

It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss. 

If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro Emini.

EURUSD Forex market trading strategies

EURUSD Forex daily chart

• Last week formed a micro wedge bottom, and a lower low double bottom with the June 18 low.
• Near bottom of yearlong trading range so bounce likely soon.
• Friday was reversal bar, and it had a bull body. Should bounce this week.
• 6-day bear micro channel with 4 consecutive bear bars so bad context for major reversal up. More likely the best the bulls will get is a bounce for a few days.
• Traders might need few sideways days to decide if Friday’s reversal will lead to a minor reversal up or just a 1- to 3-day pullback in the bear trend.
• The more today closes near its low, the more likely the EURUSD will test below Friday’s low.
• The more today closes in the middle of its range, the more likely the EURUSD will be sideways to up for a few days.
• Today so far is a bear reversal day. It rallied above Friday’s high and then reversed down. It is currently near the low of the day.
• Bears want last week’s selloff to continue down to March 31 low. But since selloff has been weak, probably will bounce here or soon.
• Unless strong break above June 25 lower high, odds favor a test of the March 31 low in July.

Summary of today’s S&P Emini futures price action and what to expect tomorrow

End of day summary

• Sold off in a Bear Trend From The Open with a series of sell climaxes.
• Fell below Friday’s low, ending the bull micro channel.
• Midday bull trend reversed up from a lower low major trend reversal just below 60-minute EMA.
• Closed in upper half of day’s range, increasing chance of more sideways to up tomorrow.
• Since 60-minute chart has 20-Gap Bar buy signal, should test Friday’s all-time high by end of week.
• Since buy climaxes on daily and 60-minute charts were unusually extreme, might be sideways for a week.
• Might test June 16 breakout point, but probably minor reversal down. Bulls will buy 1- to 3-day pullback.

See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.

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Trading Room

Traders can see the end of the day bar-by-bar price action report by signing up for free at BrooksPriceAction.com. I talk about the detailed S&P Emini futures price action real-time throughout the day in the BrooksPriceAction.com trading room. We offer a 2 day free trial.

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Charts use Pacific Time

When I mention time, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session opens at 6:30 am PT. I end the chart at 1:15 pm PT, which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.

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