Emini Breakout above June High

Trading Update: Thursday July 13, 2023

S&P Emini pre-open market analysis

Emini daily chart

• The Emini is getting a bull breakout above the June high. The Bulls are hopeful this will lead to a successful breakout of the neckline of a double top. Next, the bulls want a measured move up from the June 26^th low to the June 16^th high, projecting up to around 4,600.
• Although yesterday’s close looks disappointing for the bulls, one must consider the gap-up that happened before the start of yesterday’s U.S. Session.
• The gap up yesterday is enough of a surprise that the Bulls will probably get a second leg up, meaning the first reversal down will likely fail.
• The bears see a triangle over the past few weeks and are hopeful that yesterday’s bull breakout (gap up) is a failed breakout of the triangle. One can also call this a final bull flag.
• In Generally, there is a 50% chance that a triangle breakout fails and goes in the opposite direction.
• The market has been above the moving average for over a month. This is a sign that the bulls are in control and increases the odds of higher prices.
• Traders will pay close attention to what kind of follow-through the bulls will get today. The bulls are hopeful that today will lead to continued buying. This would create follow-through and increase the odds of higher prices.
• The bears are hopeful that yesterday’s breakout is the exhaustion that will reverse. If the Bears are going to get a reversal down, they need to show signs of strength. At a minimum, they must start forming bear bars closing on their lows.
• Even if bears successfully get bear closes, they will likely need to break below the moving average before traders are convinced the market is successfully reversing.
• Overall, the odds are that the market will go sideways to up over the next couple of days unless the bears can begin to form strong bear bars closing on their lows. 

Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today

• Emini is up 14 points in the overnight Globex session.
• The overnight Globex market has been in a bull channel for most of the overnight session. This is a second leg up following yesterday’s rally during the CPI Report.
• The market broke out above the highs of several weeks yesterday and is trying to get follow-through buying today.
• Traders should be prepared for disappointment following yesterday’s bull breakout. This means today will probably be a trading range day for most of the U.S. Session.
• Traders should also be prepared for a possible bull trend day due to the market breaking out above the June high.
• Traders should also be prepared for a possible trend from the open bull trend that forms an opening reversal and converts into a trading range day.
• As always, traders should expect the first 6-12 bars to have a lot of trading range price action. If a trader is uncomfortable with limit order trading and making fast decisions, they should consider stepping aside for the first 6 – 12 bars.
• Overall, traders should be ready for anything. The most important thing to remember on the open is that price is truth. One must never be in denial of the price action, and one must trade the chart in front of them.

Yesterday’s Emini setups

Al created the SP500 Emini charts.

Here are several reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. I show each buy entry with a green rectangle and each sell entry with a red rectangle. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a near 4-year library of more detailed explanations of swing trade setups (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups). Encyclopedia members get current daily charts added to Encyclopedia.

My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.

It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.

If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro Emini.

EURUSD Forex market trading strategies

EURUSD Forex daily chart

• The EURUSD formed a strong bull breakout above the May high yesterday and is getting follow-through buying today.
• The rally that began following the June 6^th buy signal bar has been strong enough that the first reversal down will likely fail.
• While the bulls are strong, the problem is that the rally is getting climactic, which will increase the odds of a pullback lasting one to three days.
• Climactic behavior in a trend typically leads to sideways trading and not a trend reversal. This means that the bears can realistically hope for is a trading range.
• Overall, the odds favor higher prices. However, it is reasonable for the bulls to take partial profits due to the recent rally becoming climactic.

Summary of today’s S&P Emini price action

Al created the SP500 Emini charts.

End of day video review

Today’s End Of Day review will be presented in the Trading Room and only available to the trading room subscribers.

See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.

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Trading Room

Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed Emini price action real-time each day in the BrooksPriceAction.com trading room days. We offer a 2 day free trial.

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Charts use Pacific Time

When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.

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